Editor’s Note: All polls have been updated as of 02/20/24.
Donald Trump should win the South Carolina primary this Saturday – and by a wide margin, according to the political betting sites.
If there’s such a thing as a lock in politics betting, it’s Donald Trump winning the South Carolina Republican presidential primary this Saturday. Trump and his placeholders have an iron grip on the GOP, especially in the Deep South; the latest polls cited by FiveThirtyEight have Trump leading Nikki Haley by 35-36 points in the Palmetto State.
Then again, those polls were released before Trump was ordered by a New York judge to pay some $350 million in damages ($450 million including interest), stemming from Trump’s civil business fraud trial.
Will that order cut into Trump’s margin – or will the Republican Party rally behind their de facto leader?
The political odds may have the answer. As we go to press, the Trump Victory Margin odds at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review to learn more) suggest that 35% is indeed the pivot point, but unsurprisingly, it’s the bigger landslide margins crowding the top of the South Carolina primary odds list.
| Candidate | Bovada | BetOnline |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -1200 | -5000 |
| Nikki Haley | +1200 | |
| Ron DeSantis | +8000 | |
| Tucker Carlson | +12,500 | |
| Ivanka Trump | +20,000 | |
| Any Other Candidate | +1200 |
Who Is on the Ballot in South Carolina?
Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are the only “major” candidates on the docket, although Haley represents token opposition at best. Ryan Binkley and David Stuckenberg are still in the race; voters can also choose from Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy, despite those three having already suspended their campaigns.
Haley is almost certain to take second place in Saturday’s primary – South Carolina is her home state, after all. Still, the order of finish doesn’t matter when it comes to the Trump odds, only the margin of victory.
“I feel no need to kiss the ring. I have no fear of Trump’s retribution. I’m not looking for anything from him. My own political future is of zero concern.”
— Nikki Haley, during remarks in Greenville, South Carolina, hits “herd mentality” of GOP politicians who endorsed Trump pic.twitter.com/CcIOtTBSPn
— The Recount (@therecount) February 20, 2024
How Big Will Trump Win South Carolina?
Very big indeed.
The likeliest margins of victory are the ones closest to Trump’s polling numbers:
- 30.00-34.99% (+400)
- 35.00-39.99% (+400)
However, at those odds, we can expect Saturday’s results to fall well outside what the polls would tell us. And it’s more likely to be on the high side, judging by the other results in the first tier of betting:
- 40.00-44.99% (+450)
- 50% or Higher (+475)
If you’re a serious Trump pessimist, your best betting option can be found in the second tier, but you’ll also be lumped in with the optimists:
- 25.00-29.99% (+600)
- 45.00-49.99% (+625)
All the remaining results on the odds list have Trump’s margin of victory falling short of 25%; you can even bet on him losing at +3300. It’s technically possible, just like it’s possible the Minnesota Twins (also +3300 at BetOnline) will win the 2024 World Series – but the deck isn’t stacked against the Twins the way it is for Haley and the other Republican candidates.
| Candidate | Party | BetOnline | Bovada | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Republican | -175 | -165 | -184 |
| Kamala Harris | Democrat | +153 | +145 | +163 |
How Can Haley Win South Carolina?
By continuing to hammer Trump for his obvious shortcomings.
It might seem like political suicide for Haley to risk alienating the Republican base. However, there’s a reason she hasn’t conceded yet – and it’s the same reason those other candidates have only “suspended” their campaigns rather than drop out completely.
The reason is Trump.
He might not make it all the way to November, either because of his legal situation, or because he’s 77 years old and not living a particularly healthy lifestyle. As long as Haley stays on the offensive, she’ll be in the best position possible to win the Republican nomination should Trump be forced out.
The kid gloves are definitely off at this point.
Haley has recently referred to Trump as “unhinged,” an agent of “chaos and drama,” and “not qualified to be the President of the United States.” Many of her supporters in South Carolina agree – even if they’d still vote for Trump in the end over incumbent president Joe Biden.
Does Haley Have Any Momentum?
Yes. The numbers at FiveThirtyEight show Trump losing support since that $450-million ruling was made Friday in New York; his “polling average” fell from 66.1% to 64.7%, while Haley’s inched upwards from around 30% to 31.6%.
These trends would suggest that “30.00-34.99%” is the sharp pick for your political bets at +400. As damaging as that New York case is for Trump, it doesn’t carry the same weight as the four indictments he’ll face, and of those four cases, the only one moving forward right now is the Stormy Daniels case, which won’t proceed to trial until March 25.
.@Galendruke explains why former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley says she’s staying in the race while she trails behind former Pres. Trump in the polls ahead of Saturday’s primary. pic.twitter.com/nnFhGjaInc
— ABC News Live (@ABCNewsLive) February 20, 2024
Still, even if the betting value is on Trump’s margin of victory falling short of 35%, it’ll be something of an upset should it happen.
We’ll presumably find out this Saturday just how much of an impact recent events have actually had on this race, so stay tuned to Digital Wager Wire for the latest political odds and analysis as we get closer to November 5.
