The people do not approve. That’s the biggest takeaway from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, at least up to this point – with both incumbent Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump struggling in the polls as we rush headlong towards November 5.
We already know Trump’s “favorable” rating (as per FiveThirtyEight) is starting to sag. He’s fallen from 43.8% on February 29 to 42.3% on April 13, and those numbers could drop even further now that Trump is appearing at the first of his four impending criminal trials.
But what about Biden? Does he indeed have the Joe-mentum that the polls suggested last week? Maybe not; according to the politics odds at one of our top betting sites, BetOnline (find out more with our BetOnline Review), Biden is a +200 favorite to post an approval rating between 39.00% and 39.99% on May 1. That’s below his April 13 favorability rating of 40.3%.
The rest of the Biden Approval odds don’t look too good for the incumbent, either. Here’s the list as we go to press:
| Approval Rating | Odds |
|---|---|
| 38.00% to 39.99% | +250 |
| 40.00% to 40.99% | +250 |
| Under 38% | +600 |
| 41.00% to 41.99% | +800 |
| 42% or Higher | +2000 |
The politics betting market is clearly more inclined to bet that Biden will lose two percentage points of approval rather than gain two points. Is there any value to be had here? Let’s do some journalism and find out.
How Are Biden’s Approval Numbers Trending?
Not particularly well. At this same time last year, Biden’s numbers were floating around 43-44%; by May 2023, he was down around the 40% mark, and after spending the summer climbing back up to 42%, Biden dropped straight back to 40% in the wake of Israel launching its ground offensive into the Gaza Strip on October 27.
Those numbers haven’t moved much since. There have been small victories for Biden; his newfound willingness to castigate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has helped win some supporters back, but it has yet to deter Netanyahu himself – or stop the U.S. from sending arms to Israel.
How Will Israel Affect Biden’s Approval Ratings?
They probably won’t help anytime soon. The Israel-Hamas War may not develop into a larger regional conflict, given Iran’s willingness to telegraph its April 13 retaliatory drone and missile attack on Israel, one that caused relatively minor damage. But Netanyahu is politically incentivized to keep this conflict boiling, even (and especially) if it’s a slow boil.
Meanwhile, it’s highly unlikely that Iran will stop funding Hamas, the hardline Islamists who seized control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 from the Palestinian Authority. Nor is Iran likely to stop funding Hezbollah in Lebanon, or the Houthi rebels in Yemen. I could go on; this conflict is over 2,000 years in the making, and it’s not going to be solved by November 5, let alone May 1.
How Can Biden Improve His Ratings?
It’s more a question of how not to make them any worse. Right now, America’s eyes are on Donald Trump as he falls asleep in court. Biden promised to be a “boring” president, and he’s succeeded for the most part; the Democratic Party will likely spend the rest of April letting Trump’s court case speak for itself.
However, there does seem to be a meaningful “Biden bump” coming for all the great numbers the U.S. economy has been putting up lately. According to the latest Financial Times/Michigan Ross poll, roughly 40% of Americans support how Biden has managed the economy, up 5% from last month.
That bump could flatten pretty quickly if gas prices keep going up – and they will, thanks in part to what’s happening in the Gulf. But even if that happens, and Biden’s approval ratings remain stable, that would make “40.00% to 40.99%” a winning bet at +250.
Joe Biden’s approval rating on the economy is rising among US voters https://t.co/KES4nal88M
— Financial Times (@FT) April 15, 2024
If things remain rosy for the U.S. economy? Then you’ve got some serious Joe-mentum for Biden’s approval numbers, maybe even enough to get into the 41.00% to 41.99% range at +800.
May 1 may be too soon for Biden to hit 42% approval, but at +2000, the payout would be very tasty indeed. There’s probably some betting value in all three of these potential outcomes; it would be easy enough to put together a package where you bet a chunky amount at +250, plus a smaller wager at +800 and smaller still at +2000, thus locking in a profit no matter which of the three comes true. Bet accordingly.
