Whether you plan on live betting during Super Bowl LVIII or a random NBA game every night, learning how to hedge your bets can be a great way to increase your profits as a sports bettor.
However, if you hedge the wrong way, you could end up losing even more money. To prevent that, we have prepared a guide with tips on how to properly hedge using live betting at top-rated sportsbooks.
What Is Hedging?
You have probably heard the phrase “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket” before. That logic usually leads to someone hedging, because they want to cut down on the exposure they have in case the side they bet on loses. Hedging is a risk-reward strategy when you make another bet that is the opposite of your original bet. This way you can guarantee yourself a profit and not be at a total loss from the original bet. It used to be that you would have to hedge before a game started, which frankly made little sense unless you were throwing a few bucks on a heavy underdog with longshot odds.But the addition of live betting to sportsbook apps that we can quickly access on our mobile devices has changed so much for hedging. Now, you can quickly hedge on multiple markets in a game if the 1st quarter (or even the first few minutes) doesn’t go to your liking. You could even do a live bet on player props and parlay them together at some of the top U.S. betting sites. The possibilities are close to endless now with live betting, but you still have to be smart about it or you will cost yourself more money in the long run.Letting SB future ride, no hedge
2u Chiefs ML (+1000) for Sunday.#NFL #GamblingTwitter — The Legend of MagicM MMA (@MagicM_MMABets) February 4, 2024
What Should You Hedge?
In the past, hedging was better reserved for things like futures betting markets. If you bet on Aaron Rodgers to win NFL MVP in August, you should probably hedge on a few other options with great odds to give yourself a better chance of turning a profit. You never know when your main pick is going to tear his Achilles after 4 snaps into the opening game.That would be a hedge where Rodgers was your original bet you put the highest wager amount on, then you sprinkled in smaller bets on people like Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson. You obviously can’t win more than one of these bets, but at least you give yourself 4 options instead of just the original bet.“This team will be just fine.” ✈️
Despite Aaron Rodgers’ injury, @CowherCBS isn’t too worried for the Jets. 👀 pic.twitter.com/VMvoxTbVX9 — NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 17, 2023
Then the other popular form of pre-game hedging was on a parlay. If the final leg was on a game that would be completed at a later time than the rest of the legs, then you could always hedge on that final leg and replace it with the opposite outcome. For example, if you made an NBA parlay and the final leg is the Lakers winning the 10:40 PM tip-off game, then you could hedge on that leg after you place your parlay by choosing the opponent to win instead and placing a 2nd parlay. You are guaranteed a win if it comes down to that final game. Likewise, you could hedge on the first leg of the parlay if it takes place before the rest of the legs begin. Now with live betting, you can hedge many different markets (moneyline, spread, total and player props) and you’ll have ample opportunities to do so during the game. It usually isn’t until the 4th quarter that they start locking those player props for good in NBA and NFL games.Lamar Jackson wins his 2nd MVP award tonight
Enjoy all 33 of his TDs from this season. pic.twitter.com/DF2ExnxM0K — Zach Bollinger (@zachbollinger18) February 8, 2024
Burruchaga to cash the last leg of the parlay… Hedge if you would like !!! Let’s cash it !!!🎾 https://t.co/mfsHRQalXD pic.twitter.com/FTdm9mzGTS
— OLYMPIC_MON£Y (@OLYMPIC_MONEY) February 6, 2024
Fast Trigger
Live betting does require a lot of patience and quickness to be in the app and grab the lines you want as soon as you can before they update or close. Since the lines change so frequently with each play, you can find real value in doing this, but you also can get yourself in trouble with hedging if it’s not a perfect hedge. For example, if you bet before the game on the Celtics to cover a 9.5-point spread against the Bulls and the live line is Celtics -7.5, then you may not want to bother hedging on Bulls +7.5. The doomsday scenario is Boston wins by 8 or 9 points, causing you to lose both bets. The best is when you can middle the line with a live bet. Let’s say the Celtics are up big and the new line is Boston -15.5. If you take a live bet on Bulls +15.5 and Boston wins by 10-to-15 points, you win both bets. If the Bulls make it a much closer game and win or only lose by 1-to-9 points, you lose your original bet of Celtics -9.5, but you would win the hedge on Bulls +15.5, earning you some profit at least. However, the volatility of live lines for spreads and props can make it hard to get a perfect hedge. That is why the moneyline is usually one of the best markets to hedge as it is just a matter of who wins the game. The spread doesn’t matter.When Should You Hedge?
This is where strategy and experience really come into play. The “let it ride or hedge” debate is never-ending, but there are some strategies to keep in mind. For starters, you shouldn’t assume you need to hedge at all. In fact, most times you shouldn’t hedge. Often what happens is by the time you decide to do it, it’s too late anyway to get real value out of it as the live line is -800 or something like that. Do you really want to bet $100 to win $12.50? Just let that one go. Have some confidence in your bets, especially single picks.Key Thing
The key thing is to have a good understanding of the lines the game had before it started and what your original bets are. If the total for an NBA game is 250.5 points and the teams come out shooting so poorly that the score is 22-20 after the 1st quarter, then maybe you’ll want to panic a little about your over 250.5 bet. Just keep in mind that if you want to bet on an alternate live total of under 250.5 points, the odds may already be cooked on that so, is it worth the hedge? That’s why letting things ride and maybe looking for a better hedging opportunity later is the way to go. Don’t panic too early in the game and start chasing bets.Parlay Hedge
For a parlay, you’ll want to hedge only when you know it’s going to be decided by the last leg. The worst thing you can do is hedge with a few legs left by assuming those other legs hit and you just want to hedge on the problematic one. This is double true for NBA where players can go ice cold and not score in the final 18 minutes while a player who hasn’t rebounded all night suddenly pulls in 5 boards in the final quarter to hit his over. The NBA can be downright nasty like that, so make sure you are hedging something where it is the last leg only. Even then, you’ll want to make sure it’s a perfect hedge on something like a moneyline or a total/spread/prop of equal value to your pre-game bet. Never get stuck in the gray area in between on a prop where you could end up losing both bets.The Last Leg
But if your last leg of a parlay needs Nikola Jokic to go over 10.5 rebounds and his live line is over/under 12.5 rebounds, you definitely should consider hedging something on that under 12.5. Maybe you get lucky and he finishes with 11 or 12 rebounds, allowing you to win both bets. But a good rule of thumb is to review things at halftime and see if there are any valuable lines out there that you could possibly double up on or protect yourself from a bad beat.— Gator (@gatorbets60) February 7, 2024
How Much Should You Hedge?
Finally, the question of how much to hedge will differ for everyone based on their bankroll and how much they wagered and stand to win from the bet. If you are betting $5 to win $4.55 on a bet, then hedging really shouldn’t be in your toolbox. As someone who came out on the wrong side of Atlanta’s 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI, it can never hurt to hedge something on the other side of your bet just to avoid the most excruciating bad beat possible. Those happen every once in a while in sports. Better to lock in some profit at insane odds just in case your heavy favorite blows it.7 years ago today, the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead to the Patriots in Super Bowl LI pic.twitter.com/H8NeJLKDhQ
— Bookmakers Review (@BMRReviews) February 6, 2024
The Most Important Advice
The most important advice about hedging is that the goal is to guarantee a profit. It is not to guarantee an equal profit to the original bet as that is often going to lead to you breaking even, which isn’t very fun. For example, let’s say you have a $100 parlay bet that needs one more leg to hit with +800 odds, which would return $900 ($800 in winnings plus the $100 stake back). If the last leg fails, you’re out $100 and you don’t win the $800. But if you can get a perfect hedge on the last leg, you can guarantee a profit. Maybe it’s the live spread with odds around -110, meaning your bet is very close and it’s basically a coin flip.Be Confident
In this scenario, you shouldn’t be fully hedging on a coin-flip proposition. Have some confidence in your original pick. Sure, if you live bet $800 on -110 odds, you could get a return of about $1,527.27 if the hedge wins, meaning a profit of $627.27. But if that $800 hedge loses and your original bet wins, then you’re going to feel dumb when the $900 hits your account and you’re right back where you started after you just bet $900 on this game. The truth is most people don’t have another $800 to throw on a single bet on a whim. It’s just not realistic or a good way to hedge. That doesn’t mean you couldn’t throw in a $200 live bet at -110 odds to try winning $181.82 as a guaranteed profit. If that hedge loses, then you’re still up $600 from winning the original bet.Realistic Position
That’s a better and more realistic position to be in. You hedged and gave yourself a guaranteed win while only risking an extra $200. Would it have been nicer to stay pat and win $800 with no hedge? Sure, but if the parlay lost on the last leg, you’d win nothing and be out $100. You guaranteed a fair profit with minimal risk. Again, the amount to hedge will vary by the bettor. The best is when you can hedge something at high odds like +1000 or better. Again, it is not ideal to wager hundreds of dollars on +1000 odds with a hedge, but even a $80 hedge would profit $800 in that case. That’s a nice guaranteed profit! Just remember, for it to be a good hedge, you have to guarantee yourself a win and a fair profit. If breaking even was a goal, you’d just bet both sides on everything and what fun would that be?
