There’s always something new and strange happening in college basketball. The game they play today looks only somewhat like the version James Naismith invented in 1891; five players per side wasn’t a set rule until 1896, and the first college-only postseason tournaments in the United States weren’t held until 1922.
The past 100-plus years since have been very lucrative for college basketball – specifically for the NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association) and the schools in Division I, the NCAA’s highest level of sanctioned competition. Arenas across the country are packed to the rafters, the fans are going crazy, and staggering sums of money are wagered on college basketball.
Things really started cooking after the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament, now lovingly referred to as March Madness, was launched in 1939. The “Big Dance” has become a cultural institution all its own, bringing in north of 40 million U.S. bettors and $3 billion in action every spring. Here’s how you can grab yourself a piece of that pie at the top-rated sportsbooks.
1. Understand the Odds
This is the key you need to unlock all those NCAAB betting riches.
Every time you bet on college basketball, you’re entering a financial transaction with your chosen online sportsbook; the book sets the odds for the wager in question and pays the winners accordingly.
These basketball odds aren’t meant to be any kind of prediction – although it might seem that way if you listen to some of the pundits out there, saying things like “Vegas thinks North Carolina will win” because they’re 3-point home favorites over Duke. That’s not how it works, buddy; the NCAAB odds reflect what the betting market thinks about the game in question, not the oddsmakers. If enough money comes in on North Carolina at –3 (or not enough money on Duke at +3), the books will bump their odds up, maybe by half a point to –3.5, maybe more.
Of course, you also have to know what the heck “–3.5” means if you want to bet on college basketball.
There are dozens of different bet types on the NCAAB odds board, including the world-famous point spread, where the favored team has to win by at least the posted number of points in order to pay out. In this case, “North Carolina –3.5” means the Tar Heels have to beat Duke by at least four points, while the Blue Devils can lose by up to three at +3.5 and still beat the spread.
You can – and should – learn all the nuts and bolts when it comes to NCAAB point spreads, moneylines, totals, parlays, player props and so on when you’re just starting to bet on basketball. But you’ll be wasting both your time and your money if you don’t put this new knowledge in its proper context.
If there’s only one thing you take away from this guide, remember that sports betting isn’t a battle between you and the bookie; it’s between you and the other bettors.
2. Know Your Enemy
With that in mind, if you’re hoping to make a buck or two from NCAAB betting, you have to keep one eye on the basketball teams themselves, and one eye on the betting public. When it comes to the former, the more you know about college basketball compared to your fellow bettors, the more you can take advantage of their less-informed betting decisions; use advanced stats like the ones Ken Pomeroy publishes on his website, and you’ll have one leg up on bettors who stick with more familiar, but less predictive stats like points per game.
That’s if they’re thinking at all. Most bettors are just throwing a few bucks at their favorite teams and players as a form of entertainment rather than a fully-formed investment strategy. Nothing wrong with that at all – don’t call these people “squares.” The more recreational bettors there are pumping action into a game, the more their so-called dead money distorts the betting market, and the more the sportsbooks move their odds in response.
Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to find the wagers with the largest gap between where the NCAAB odds are and where they “should” be based purely on how good the teams and players are.
You need at least a 52.4% advantage to make a profit when you’re paying the standard –110 vigorish; the larger the gap, the larger your wager should be, provided you’re not eating up too large a chunk of your bankroll.
Again, if you’re not sure what terms like “vigorish” mean, that’s the kind of stuff you’ll need to learn as a newbie, but that’s what betting glossaries are for. Put in a little time here and there like you would learning any other language, and before you know it, you’ll be dunking on the college basketball odds like a seasoned pro.
