Key facts
- Presidential approval ratings have been around since the late 1930s and judge public support of a president.
- Most ratings swing wildly throughout a president’s term.
- Joe Biden’s rating is currently around 40%, with some polls having him just above and some just below.
Every four years, Americans vote to elect a president, but that doesn’t mean they always like him very much in between elections.
A president’s approval rating is a gauge that gives an easy-to-understand look at just how much the public supports the person in the Oval Office. Approval ratings started in the late 1930s, by the famous pollster George Gallup (the person the famed Gallup poll was named after.) Gallup asked a number of Americans if they approved of the job the president was doing and reported the results as a percentage. The process has continued largely the same way ever since.
A few new bells and whistles have been added. There is now also a disapproval rating, which polls Americans on the opposite question—do you disapprove of the job the president is doing—, to see just how strong the feelings are on both sides and if there are a large number of undecided Americans.
Ever Changing Numbers
Since the president was just picked as the best of two or more options by a majority of the country, a president usually starts a new term with high approval ratings. As they start making decisions and coping with situations, those numbers often drop.
Most presidents see their approval and disapproval numbers swing wildly throughout their term. For example, George W. Bush had a high approval rating of 90% and a low of 25%. Clinton went from 73% to 37%, Obama from 68% to 38%. Disapproval numbers had similar swings, from 6% to 71% for George W. Bush and 12% to 55% for Obama.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump
As the country has gotten more polarized in recent years, approval and disapproval ratings have stabilized. The last two presidents—Trump and Biden—have had the smallest change from their high to low approval (and disapproval) ratings of any presidents in history. That’s because there is a core group of supporters on each side who will always approve of what their guy is doing and never approve of the other side. Trump’s approval rating changed a total of only 15% through his term, and Biden’s has bounced between a 20-point spread, from a low of 37% to a high of 57%.
The Current Situation
Biden started his term with high ratings and hit his high of 57% in April of 2021. High levels of inflation and world events, such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, have caused many voters to sour on the job he’s done, and concerns over his age have also eroded his base of support.
As a result, Biden is currently receiving some of the lowest approval rates of his presidency. Most current approval rate pollsters have Biden at just above or just below the 40% mark. In the second week of December, FiveThirtyEight had him at 37%, which is a new low for his administration.
Where Is It Going and Can I Bet on It?
The short answer to “Can I bet on the president’s approval rating?” is yes. BetOnline is one of several political betting sites that offer presidential approval rating markets. Currently, BetOnline offers the chance to bet on what Biden’s approval numbers will be on January 1, 2024 (find out more with our BetOnline Review).
The option with the best odds is for him to bounce back slightly from his mid-December low: Between 39% and 39.99% has the best odds, at +265. Next is 37% to 37.99% at +275 and 38% to 38.99% at the same odds.
Biden hitting a new low, below 37%, gets odds of +400, and the president bouncing to over 40% are the longest odds on the board: 40% to 40.99% is at +700, 41% to 41.99% is +1800 and 42% or more is +5000.
Obviously, developments in either war—both strongly supported by Biden—could have an impact on his numbers. So could economic news in either direction. Congress appears poised to break for the holidays without voting to give more aid to Ukraine. If Biden can break a deal at the last minute, it could give his numbers a boost. And, with the holiday shopping season in full swing, economic news could end up being good as we approach the end of the year. So a slight bump appears to be the best bet.
Our pick is 38% to 38.99% on January 1 (+275) at BetOnline.
