It’s a fact: When the Washington Commanders win, so do the incumbents. Should this have any impact on the politics odds for 2024?
Maybe it’s written in the stars. The past month has seen both the election odds at online sportsbooks and the polling aggregates swing towards Donald Trump and the Republican Party. But maybe there’s a more accurate predictor for who’s going to take the White House: did the Washington Commanders win their last home game before Election Day?
Yes, yes they did. It took a ridiculous Hail Mary from QB Jayden Daniels that plopped lovingly into the waiting arms of WR Noah Brown, but Washington (–1.5 at home) beat the Chicago Bears 18-15. That means Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party are virtual locks to win the 2024 presidential election – if you believe in the predictive power of trends.
Jayden Daniels with the HAIL MARY to Noah Brown for the win!#RaiseHailpic.twitter.com/bJew4jFTHf
— COMMANDERS FOOTBALL (@HogsHaven) October 27, 2024
What’s the “Commanders” Rule?
They don’t call it the You-Know-What Rule anymore, but it goes something like this: in 17 of the 21 U.S. elections since 1940 inclusive, the result of Washington’s most recent home game has matched the voting result. When they win, the incumbent wins; when they lose, the incumbent loses.
Except they’ve had to tweak the rule in recent years. Here are the four instances where this trend failed:
- 2004 (George W. Bush)
- 2012 (Barack Obama)
- 2016 (Donald Trump)
- 2020 (Joe Biden)
It’s never easy to throw away a good gimmick when it stops working, so the man who introduced this trend in the first place, Steve Hirdt from Elias Sports Bureau, trotted out Version 2.0 after the 2004 election:
“When the popular vote winner does not win the election, the impact of the [REDACTED] game on the subsequent presidential election gets flipped.”
Biden won the popular vote and the election in 2020, so we don’t have to worry about finessing the impact of Washington’s miraculous comeback over the Bears. That makes Harris a five-star deadbolt lock to claim victory in 2024.
Is This Trend for Real?
Of course not.
I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I doubt very many people are changing their vote this year because the Commanders won. Betting trends only have predictive power when there’s enough connective tissue between the events in question to suggest they might continue. The strength of the Democratic campaign is clearly not tied in any fashion to Jayden Daniels’s right arm.
If you’re a Person of a Certain Age, you might remember another political trend that used to get bandied about: the Curse of Tippecanoe. Here are the eight presidents who have died in office since 1840 inclusive, with the years they were elected:
- William Henry Harrison (1840)
- Zachary Taylor (1848)
- Abraham Lincoln (1860)
- James A. Garfield (1880)
- William McKinley (1900)
- Warren G. Harding (1920)
- Franklin D. Roosevelt (1940)
- John F. Kennedy (1960)
Do you see the pattern? When Harrison passed away from pneumonia (and awful 1840s medical practices) just one month after taking office, they blamed it on Tecumseh’s Curse; Tecumseh was the leader of the Shawnee people who were defeated by Harrison’s troops at the Battle of Tippecanoe in 1811.
You’d better believe everyone was talking about this trend before Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 – and especially after he was shot in 1981. But Reagan broke the curse, George W. Bush survived his first term, and so far, Biden has done the same.
These may be two extreme examples of why you should be suspicious when it comes to betting trends, but you might be surprised how many people believe in these things. Don’t fall for it; stick with first principles when it comes to cause and effect, and you’ll make smarter choices when you bet on politics.
