Donald Trump will be the 47th President of the United States – but the election odds at the politics betting sites for who takes the House remain a mystery.
Trumpism is alive and well in America. Early Wednesday morning, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election; it appears Trump and the Republican Party will sweep all seven swing states, while also defeating Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party in the national vote.
Don’t call it 2016 again just yet. The GOP claimed complete control of Congress that year, but as we go to press, the House of Representatives is still anyone’s to win – and the election odds have been taken off the board at both Bovada and BetOnline, at least for now.
Who’s Winning the House?
According to the projections at 270toWin, the Republicans have won 202 of the 435 House seats thus far, and the Democrats 189, leaving 44 seats still to be decided. Their forecast has the two parties tied at 210; there are 15 seats remaining in the Toss-up category, and you need at least 218 in total to control the House.
It’s possible this race will have been decided by the time you read this – or it could take several days. According to the live polls at press time, the GOP is ahead in close contests in Alaska, Arizona and Iowa, but the Dems are faring better in California and Colorado, as one might expect.
Does It Matter?
Certainly. If Trump and the GOP are serious about putting Project 2025 into action, they’ll need control of the House. They’ve already secured a majority in the Senate; if they take the House as well, the Republicans can pass whatever bills they want and send them to the Senate for ratification, then on to Trump for rubber-stamping.
Granted, the GOP won both chambers of Congress in 2016 and Trump still didn’t get to do everything he wanted. But he’ll face a less “establishment” Republican Senate this time around, even if they’ll likely end up with the same narrow 52-48 majority they saw eight years ago; Trump has more of his placeholders in office now, ready to do his bidding.
For the most part, it will be up to the Democrats to provide those famous checks and balances – which will be a lot easier if they take the House. Either way, the Dems still wield quite a bit of power at the state level, particularly in California and New York, so any talk of November 5-6 being the death of American democracy is premature at best.
Who Will Win in 2028?
While we wait for the House odds to get posted again, it’s only natural to turn our focus to 2028, where Vice President-elect J.D. Vance is the +300 favorite at Bovada (check our Bovada Review) (up from +400 as I write this) to win the White House. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the second favorite and the top Democrat at +700; Harris is further down the list at +1600.
The line of succession between Trump and Vance is self-evident. Unless he changes the rules, Trump can only serve two terms, so someone else has to represent the GOP – and Vance, the leader of the so-called New Right, is the heir apparent to the MAGA movement that has now swept Trump into power twice.
Newsom was one of the most prominent Democrats being floated as a potential replacement for Joe Biden on the 2024 campaign trail. He has a large donor base in California, and made high-profile trips to China and Israel in October 2023 as the Dems were first floating the idea of someone taking over for Biden.
No doubt there will be an appetite among Democratic supporters to put another male of European descent on the 2028 ticket, after both Harris and Hillary Clinton failed to crack Washington’s glass ceiling. But if you’re looking for maximum drama and intrigue, Michelle Obama is tied with Harris at +1600. Bet accordingly.
