As the former and next President of the United States, Donald Trump had/will have the power to pardon anyone he wants. Well, almost anyone: Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the Constitution says this power only applies to federal offenses, and cannot involve cases of impeachment. Otherwise, with the jagged stroke of Trump’s pen, you get sprung.
Who’s first in line for a presidential pardon? The politics odds at Bovada (find out more with our Bovada Review) include a select list of candidates for Trump’s first 100 days back in office, led by any “January 6 Protestor” at –500. There are some very interesting names on this list – including Trump himself – so let’s take a closer look at what’s on tap and where the betting value might be at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Will Trump Pardon the January 6 Protestors?
They weren’t exactly “protestors,” but yes, it’s a virtual lock that Trump will pardon at least one of the over 1,000 people who pled guilty or were convicted for their roles in the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C.
Trump has said so himself. And he said he’d do it “the first day we get into office,” which will be January 20. The offenses these pardons would erase range from hundreds of simple misdemeanors like trespassing, to serious crimes like seditious conspiracy, which saw the leaders of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers receive lengthy jail sentences.
Trump might even pardon them all in one fell swoop.
Will Trump Pardon Ross Ulbricht?
That’s what he told a hostile Libertarian National Convention this past May. “If you vote for me, on Day One I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht,” Trump said in regards to the founder of the “Silk Road” darknet market and cause celebre of the libertarian movement; Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made much the same promise before pulling out of the race in August.
Of all the individual names on the board at Bovada, Ulbricht has the shortest Trump pardon odds by far at –400.
Ulbricht was sentenced in 2015 to double life imprisonment plus 40 years without parole for selling narcotics and other illegal products over the dark web, as well as money laundering and other charges; the relatively harsh sentence stemmed from “preponderance of the evidence” that Ulbricht also paid $730,000 for the killings of at least five people.
Ulbricht’s supporters in the libertarian/crypto space see him as part of their “tech bro” family, so it’s little wonder those jeers turned to cheers when Trump told convention-goers he would “get him home.” Not all of them bought what Trump was selling, given his previous statements on how certain drug dealers should face the death penalty, but it looks like they’re about to have a family reunion on January 20 – or whenever the paperwork gets through. More on that in a moment.
Will Trump Pardon Himself?
He can try.
Trump will once again have plenary power to grant executive clemency to whomever he sees fit, within those parameters mentioned above. And yes, that includes Trump himself. But he has yet to be convicted of a federal crime; Trump’s Hush Money trial in New York was at the state level, so he can’t pardon himself for those 34 felonies.
Trump does appear to be off the hook for those two federal cases, the January 6 case and the Classified Documents case; Special Counsel Jack Smith is dropping both now that Trump is headed back to the White House. That only leaves the Election Racketeering case in Georgia, which again is at the state level, and remains on pause for the moment while prosecutors consider their next move.
The President-elect has long said he won’t pardon himself, since that would only be admitting that he committed a crime – but now that there’s nothing left to be pardoned for at the federal level, those +700 Trump odds don’t look so enticing. But will Trump actually get any of these pardons in on Day One, let alone his first 100 days?
Maybe not. He has until April 30 under the terms of this bet; the first pardon/commutation/reprieve Trump issued during his first term was on August 25, 2017, when former Maricopa County, Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio was pardoned shortly after his conviction for contempt of court.
Even if Trump bypasses the Office of the Pardon Attorney, which is supposed to review POTUS clemency grants, these things take at least some time.
Bet accordingly.
