There are countless Donald Trump supporters out there betting on politics. You can see them working their magic at the online sportsbooks, putting their money on Trump without a second thought and moving the odds in their direction.
Exhibit A: the Presidential Debate odds at Bovada (find out more with our Bovada Review). When we previewed Thursday’s CNN debate a couple of weeks back, Joe Biden was the -190 favorite to be declared the winner; at press time, Biden’s odds are down to -170.
It’s not like Biden has spent the past two weeks falling down staircases or vomiting in the laps of foreign dignitaries. Instead, Trump and the Republican Party have been trying to raise public expectations for how well Biden might perform this Thursday. Trump even called Biden a “worthy debater” during a recent edition of the All-In Podcast.
Apparently those MAGA bettors didn’t get the message. But that’s how the politics betting market works – and you can expect to see the same patterns play out with the 2024 election odds once Thursday’s debate is over.
After spending months attacking Biden’s mental fitness, Trump says he expects the president to be a “worthy debater.” https://t.co/wuyFrwnFyA
— ABC News (@ABC) June 21, 2024
Will Trump Win the Debate?
Probably not. Trump didn’t win either of their two debates in 2020, and aside from everyone being four years older, not much has changed with these two combatants. The format has changed, of course, but not in any way that should benefit Trump.
At least not from a debate standpoint. The things Trump says and does this Thursday might not score very highly among the armchair debaters watching at home – and they’ll be the ones declaring the victor – but they’re all aimed at knocking Biden down a peg or two in the minds of voters.
Plus, there’s always the chance Biden stumbles. Maybe he’ll commit an “own goal” at some point during Thursday’s debate; if he does, it could be catastrophic for the Democratic Party’s chances this November. Trump doesn’t have nearly as much to lose Thursday as the incumbent president.
How Will the Debate Impact the Election?
Let’s assume for now that things go pretty much the way they did four years ago, and Biden wins Thursday’s debate without anything particularly newsworthy happening.
The first time these two did battle was September 29, 2020. According to the PredictIt electoral map, Biden was projected on September 28 to win the election 291-247; by September 30, that gap had increased to 306-203.
The second time Biden and Trump met was October 22. Here are the PredictIt projections from before and after that debate:
- October 21: 305-233
- October 23: 305-233
Well then. Apparently, most Americans had seen enough during the first debate to make their decision; Biden did eventually win the 2020 election 306-232. Something similar is likely to happen this time around – although holding the first debate so early could cause Biden to lose whatever “Joe-mentum” he might gather Thursday.
Should I Bet on Biden?
This is where we get back to those betting patterns I mentioned at the top. Biden’s presidential odds may indeed improve after Thursday’s debate, in which case Biden would be available at a bargain price right now; at press time, he’s +130 at BetOnline (find out more with our BetOnline Review), with Trump at -150 and former First Lady Michelle Obama still in third at +2200.
| Candidate | Party | BetOnline | Bovada | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Republican | -175 | -165 | -184 |
| Kamala Harris | Democrat | +153 | +145 | +163 |
But you might get an even better price closer to the election. Four years ago, while everyone was cheering for/panicking over a potential Trump victory, the odds and the projections moved towards the Republicans as November 5 drew closer:
- October 30: 305-233
- November 1: 290-248
- November 3: 279-259
Again, chances are we’ll see something similar happen ahead of the 2024 election. It’s just like betting on the Super Bowl: That “public” MAGA money will be coming in blind on Trump as we get closer to kick-off, causing the politics odds to shift – and leaving all the betting value in Biden’s corner. Bet accordingly.
