Donald Trump and Joe Biden are due to lock horns June 27 on CNN. The political betting sites have a lot to say about what might happen.
Do these really count as presidential debates? Donald Trump and Joe Biden have agreed to battle twice this year in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election; however, this showdown is not being brought to you by the Commission on Presidential Debates, but by the television networks themselves.
This might not seem like a big deal, but imagine if CBS had decided before Super Bowl LVIII to invite Kansas City and San Francisco to play a different game instead, one where the network would be running the show instead of the NFL front office.
Would the faux Super Bowl have played out any differently? That would have depended on the changes CBS made to the format, including the rules of the game itself, and how they would be enforced without the participation of the NFL Referees Association.
Which brings us to the U.S. politics odds board at Bovada (find out more with our Bovada Review). You can bet on the presidential debates just like you can the Super Bowl; there are betting lines for who will win, and there are props for all sorts of things, like what they’ll be wearing during the Halftime Show – I mean, the first debate on CNN, which will be held Thursday, July 27. Let’s investigate.
Who Will Win the Debate?
Biden was widely acknowledged as the winner of both debates in 2020, and if it hadn’t been for the format change, the incumbent president would be an obvious bet as the –190 favorite to Trump’s +145.
He might still be. The ball is in CNN’s court; it’s their initial post-debate poll of viewers that will decide who wins this battle, which will take place at their studio in Atlanta. Jake Tapper and Dana Bash will be the hosts and moderators.
To make this all happen, CNN agreed to two stipulations from the Biden camp:
- The debate will take place in an empty studio – not unlike Terry Funk vs. Jerry “The King” Lawler in 1981.
- CNN will cut off the microphone once a speaker has used up his allotted time.
These are big wins for Biden, enough to make some pundits wonder why Trump would agree to them, or if he’ll even show up.
Will RFK Jr. Be in the Debate?
I used “his” in that previous paragraph because this debate will almost certainly be Trump vs. Biden, and no one else. CNN left this debate open for any candidate who satisfies a long list of requirements; the only other person with a prayer of getting in is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who filed a complaint against CNN with the Federal Election Commission, claiming he’s been squeezed out on purpose.
There are two hurdles in particular that Kennedy needs to clear by June 20: one more qualifying national poll where he gets at least 15% support, and his name on enough state ballots to reach the required 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
The first could happen; the second is highly unlikely. Kennedy is suing left and right in a last-ditch attempt to get on the debate stage, and maybe he will, but his name doesn’t appear anywhere on Bovada’s debate odds as we go to press.
What Will Trump Say?
The former president will probably say the 2020 election was rigged – and/or stolen. The total for how many times Trump says either of those two words during his allotted time in the debate is 9.5, with the Under favored at –240.
I’m still hunting for information on how long this debate will be (it starts at 9 PM ET), but it’s easy to imagine Trump going Over (+175). He’s also claimed that both the 2016 and 2024 elections were/are rigged; the Big Lie is the foundation of his entire campaign.
Other things Trump seems likely to say during the debate: Make America Great Again (–300), Hunter Biden (–175), witch hunt (EVEN), and Crooked Joe Biden (+125). You might even get some betting value with “Most corrupt election in American history” at +350.
Bet accordingly.
