Key facts
- The son of the former attorney general and presidential candidate is running a third-party campaign.
- RFK Jr.’s campaign started in the Democratic party, but he switched to an independent run in October.
- He has been outspoken against vaccines.
The prospect of a second straight presidential election matching Donald Trump and Joe Biden has many voters at political betting sites feeling less than enthusiastic about their choice in 2024.
With the last two presidents leading their respective party polls by wide margins —despite both having high disapproval ratings—, there have been calls by many voters for a viable third-party campaign, something not seen since Ross Perot got nearly 19% of the vote in 1992.
One alternative for disgruntled voters is a familiar name in America’s political history: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The son of the former attorney general, and nephew of former president John Kennedy, announced his plans to run for president in early 2023. His father won the 1968 California Democratic primary before he was assassinated —a little over four years after JFK’s presidency was also cut short by an assassin’s bullet.
RFK Jr. initially joined the presidential race as a Democratic candidate. However, after claiming the Democratic party had stacked the deck in favor of incumbent Joe Biden, Kennedy switched to an independent run in October, saying, “I’m coming here today to declare our independence from the journey of corruption, which robs us of affordable lives, our belief in the future and our respect for each other. But to do that, I must first declare my own independence, independence from the Democratic Party.”
Who is RFK Jr.?
Kennedy will turn 70 in mid-January, 2024, which makes him seven years younger than Trump and 11 years younger than Biden. He has worked as an environmental lawyer, writer, and activist for decades, forming a group dedicated to preserving clean water around the world. He also created a law firm that represents private citizens against companies that pollute. His 1997 book The Riverkeepers described his “fight to reclaim the environment as a human right.”
As part of his legal work, Kennedy also fought for minority rights and the rights of indigenous tribes across North and South America, filing suits to keep parks in minority neighborhoods in New York City open as well as to stop logging on tribal lands in Canada and dam building on indigenous land in Chile.
Controversial views
In more recent years, Kennedy has also endorsed several conspiracy theories, most notably the anti-vax effort. Even before the COVID pandemic, Kennedy was opposed to vaccine use, believing that they caused autism in children. He was also opposed to the COVID vaccine, writing a book attacking Dr. Anthony Fauci, and he has questioned the legitimacy of the COVID pandemic itself, saying that it was part of a campaign to eliminate the middle class—another long-held conspiracy theory of his. He also claimed the COVID virus was engineered in a lab.
In 2021, an organization estimated that Kennedy was one of 12 people who were responsible for nearly two-thirds of all COVID misinformation on social media.
Kennedy also said that mass shootings are the result of antidepressants like Prozac, blamed the CIA for killing JFK, and questioned whether the correct person was blamed for his father’s assassination.
Can He Win?
History doesn’t bode well for Kennedy’s chances of winning the presidency. With more than 19 million votes in 1992, Perot is by far the most successful third-party candidate in American history, and he didn’t come close to winning a state. The last third-party candidate to win any electoral votes was George Wallace, a pro-segregation candidate in 1968.
Kennedy isn’t even assured of being an option in every state. In the first week of January, he announced that he had qualified for the presidential ballot in his first state—Utah.
RFK Jr. has some factors working in his favor, however. In addition to the intense dislike for the likely major party candidates, Kennedy has the name recognition as a member of America’s first family. He also has a strong fundraising network.
As 2024 opened, he was expected to receive up to 14% of the vote according to several leading polls, which isn’t enough to win anything. He can still have a major impact on the race, pulling votes away from one Trump or Biden. Both parties appear to have concerns that a Kennedy campaign will hurt them. Republicans began attacking Kennedy shortly after he announced his independent run, and some Democrats have expressed worry that he’ll hurt Biden’s chances of reelection.
“The Democrats are frightened that I’m gonna spoil the election for President Biden,” he said. “The Republicans are frightened that I’m gonna spoil it for President Trump. The truth is they’re both right. My intention is to spoil it for both of them.”
Trouble Spots
His controversial views have made Kennedy a target of many in the establishment. Four of his 10 siblings put out a statement on X opposing his presidential run, calling it “dangerous to our country.”
“Bobby might share the same name as our father,” the statement read, “but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment.”
Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment. Today’s announcement is deeply saddening for us. We denounce his candidacy and believe it to be perilous for our country. @roryekennedy @joekennedy @KKT_Kennedy pic.twitter.com/WJfGwSxN1z
— Kerry Kennedy (@KerryKennedyRFK) October 9, 2023
In January, two controversies popped up. Kennedy was linked to Jeffrey Epstein, who killed himself while awaiting trial for several sex trafficking of minors charges. Kennedy admitted to flying twice with Epstein on Epstein’s private jet.
In the other scandal, a planned fundraising event to celebrate RFK Jr.’s birthday claimed that actor Martin Sheen and singers Dionne Warwick and Andrea Bocelli would be in attendance. All three celebrities said that was untrue.
“I do not endorse RFK Jr. nor will I be attending his party,” Sheen posted on Instagram. Warwick said it was “absolutely ridiculous” and Bocelli said he wouldn’t even be in the country on the night of the event.
What’s Next
Kennedy seems likely to stay in the race until the end, which throws a wild card into both the Democratic and Republican front runners’ campaigns. With a name that has long been part of the Democratic brand, Kennedy will be a threat to voters in that party not sold on the president.
His maverick views also make him an appealing option to Republicans not ready to sign up for another four years of Trump. While he won’t be a factor to win in most states, he can certainly swing the razor-thin margin in some of the battleground states in one way or the other by pulling votes from one of the mainstream candidates.
