Hush Money Trial Recap: Did the Closing Arguments & Judge’s Instructions Impact the Verdict?

The political betting sites said Donald Trump would be found guilty in his New York trial. Was his fate sealed on the last day of instructions?

All that remained in Donald Trump’s “hush money” trial in New York was a verdict. The jury began its deliberations on Wednesday, and Thursday afternoon, they found Trump guilty on all 34 counts.

Which was expected, more or less. The political odds at Bovada (find out more with our Bovada Review) heading into Thursday were exactly where they were last month, with Yes priced at –210 on Trump being found guilty on at least one count. And if Trump hadn’t been found guilty, it would almost certainly have been due to a hung jury.

That’s because Bovada’s Trump trial odds were –200 that the jury would reach at least a partial verdict. On the flip side, this trial was +150 to end with a hung jury, and Trump was +155 to get off without a conviction.

In the end, it was all fairly routine. You could even see from the way things wrapped up, during the closing arguments and judge’s instructions, that it was just another case in the New York court system – even if there was a former and possible future U.S. president involved.

What Were the Trump Trial Closing Arguments?

Tuesday saw Trump’s defense team give a three-hour closing argument, led by lawyer Todd Blanche. His main thrust was that Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels, the two most important witnesses for the prosecution, could not be trusted. At one point, Blanche told the jury, “You cannot send someone to prison, you cannot convict somebody, based upon the words of Michael Cohen.”

That was a no-no. Judge Juan Merchan told Blanche that comment was “highly inappropriate,” since the jury isn’t supposed to consider how Merchan might sentence Trump – just whether he’s guilty or not.

Later that day, the prosecution gave their closing arguments, but they only needed 41 minutes to make their point. Lead prosecutor Joshua Steinglass focused on the testimony of David Pecker, the former publisher of the National Enquirer who admittedly engaged in a “catch and kill” deal to keep negative stories about Trump – including the alleged Stormy Daniels affair – from getting printed.

Steinglass also tied together the conversations between Trump and Cohen regarding payments to Pecker and Daniels, including a check to Cohen from December 2017 signed by the former president, which was followed by a Trump tweet from 2018 where he acknowledged that Cohen was reimbursed.

What Were the Trump Trial Jury Instructions?

On Wednesday, the day after the closing arguments were held, Merchan gave the jury their instructions, pointing out several important factors in how they were to arrive at their verdict – including that part about not speculating on whether Merchan might send Trump to jail.

Here are some of the other notable instructions Merchan gave:

• They were allowed to consider whether any of the witnesses hoped to benefit from the trial, including its result.
• They couldn’t convict based on Cohen’s testimony alone, since he was an accomplice.
• They couldn’t give any weight to the fact that Trump chose not to testify.

Merchan also took some time to explain the laws in question, including what it means to falsify business records, and what it means to violate the Federal Election Campaign Act. Then the jury left the courtroom to begin their deliberations.

Did This Impact the Verdict?

Yes and no. The closing arguments were a microcosm of the trial up to that point, and Merchan’s final instructions emphasized how the jury was already expected to perform; if there had been anything groundbreaking with either of those, the Trump odds would have moved in one direction or the other.

However, these were still very important moments in the trial. The defense team didn’t spring any “October surprises” on the jury, the prosecution clearly and effectively re-stated their case and the judge didn’t leave any obvious loopholes in his instructions.

Before the verdict was handed down, I predicted that Trump would be found guilty on at least one count. New York prosecutors almost always get guilty verdicts in similar cases, and this is something they do all the time, so again, all of this has been rather routine – at least for the prosecution.

What Does It All Mean?

That’s the question of the day. Trump’s team will almost certainly appeal this verdict, and his sentencing won’t take place until July 11, so the wheels of justice will continue to turn for a while.

In the meantime, we’re about to find out just how truthful all those potential Trump voters were when answered in previous polls that a guilty verdict would change their minds. Trump’s odds to become president had been getting shorter at Bovada, moving all the way to –150 earlier this month; in the wake of the verdict, Trump is down to –115 as I write this.

That market correction could be just the beginning. We’re through the looking-glass; it’s the first time a former U.S. president has ever been convicted of a felony, and it might take a while for this to sink in.

Keep an eye on the political odds to see which way the wind is blowing and bet accordingly. Below you will find the current 2024 Presidential Election Odds.