The verdict may be in, but his trial isn’t over yet. What sentence will Donald Trump receive on July 11? Is Trump going to jail?
As expected, the Donald Trump odds have shifted since he was found guilty last week on all 34 counts in his “hush money” trial – but only somewhat. Trump was –150 at Bovada (find out more with our Bovada Review) to regain the presidency before falling to –115 after the verdict; those odds are now completely off the board as I write this, although Trump is still the –140 favorite over at BetOnline (find out more with our BetOnline Review).
Being a convicted felon hasn’t hurt Trump’s chances all that much. Then again, he’s yet to be handed a sentence. That will take place July 11; in theory, Judge Juan Merchan could send Trump to prison for the rest of his life, assuming Trump wouldn’t somehow outlive his… let’s see, carry the one… 136-year sentence, which is the maximum four years for each of his 34 guilty verdicts.
Will Trump Go To Jail?
Given the violent rhetoric from Trump and his people since the verdict, plus his consistent failure to respect gag orders during the trial, it’s not unreasonable to think that Merchan might see Trump as a threat to society.
However, don’t expect Merchan to give Trump the full meal deal. If the former president goes to jail at all, he’ll probably serve however many terms he faces concurrently instead of consecutively. And that would still be unusually harsh punishment for a 77-year-old (turning 78 this month) first-time criminal who committed mere Class E felonies – just one step above misdemeanors in the New York justice system.
According to what’s on the politics odds board at Bovada, Trump is most likely to receive a fine (–10000) and probation (–1500), without going directly to jail (+400) or home confinement (+300). But Judge Merchan does have another option at his disposal: community service (+200, after moving from +300).
This is where things get interesting. Let’s take a gander at some of the ways Trump may be forced to serve the community and see what looks tastiest on the political betting sites.
Will Trump Be Given Community Service?
It could happen.
Community service is often included as part of a probationary sentence, or a conditional discharge – which isn’t on the board at Bovada, but makes sense given how difficult it would be to monitor Trump and his entire service team during probation. Then again, Judge Merchan might not want to give Trump the opportunity to turn his community service into a campaign ad.
Look at some of the different tasks the Trump odds have in store at Bovada:
- Picking up trash (+800)
- Homeless shelter (+1000)
- Animal shelter (+1200)
- Delivering food to the elderly (+2000)
- Helping retired adult film actresses (+5000)
Okay, clearly that last one was included just for funsies – as was working for the Clinton Foundation (+2500, after moving from +8000). But those other tasks are the kind of things you see politicians do on the regular, at least when they’re campaigning. You can easily imagine Trump performing them with gusto, grinning the whole time while giving the thumbs-up to the camera.
As it turns out, Trump could receive community service and not have to do any of these things. Judge Merchan can opt to let Trump put in his hours of service through a private non-profit of his choice, as opposed to a court-mandated program. Maybe that +5000 bet has some legs to it after all?
No, not really. It’s still quite unlikely the former president will have to do any form of community service; indeed, that’s the –500 favorite from the full list of Trump betting odds at Bovada. However, if you’re looking for a bargain as far as what punishment Trump might face, consider “Electronic tag” at +400 (after moving from +1200).
If Trump is given home detention, which might be Merchan’s best option under these circumstances, he’d presumably be expected to wear an ankle bracelet anyway. Bet accordingly.
