The 2024 U.S. election may be over, but there’s always something on the Donald Trump odds board that you can bet on. We’ve already covered who Trump will nominate for his new cabinet, and who he’ll pardon in his first 100 days in office; now let’s turn our attention to Trump’s exit date. Will it be in 2029 as scheduled? Let’s investigate.
Will Trump Finish His Second Term?
There’s been plenty of speculation about whether Trump will complete his second term, let alone seek a third one. Last week, BetOnline had the President-elect priced at -225 to make it all the way through; that same price is on their politics odds board as we go to press.
I’ve delved into this topic elsewhere, so here’s the condensed version: Trump is highly unlikely to get thrown out of office, and his average life expectancy given his age, size and habits is another nine years or so. We won’t speculate here about further attempts on his life.
But is there any betting value at -225? While nine years would take Trump well beyond 2029, that’s his average life expectancy, which means he’s 50/50 to make it that far. At this price, Trump needs a 69.23% chance of making it through just the next four years to break even; however, the “curve” from now until then gets steeper as Trump gets older. The difference between ages 78 and 82 isn’t nearly as dramatic as between 83 and 87.
With that in mind, “Yes” seems like a fairly safe way to bet on Trump. But what if you’re on the other side of the aisle, and you’re looking for an anti-Trump sweat?
What Year Will Trump Leave Office?
This politics prop bet might me more to your liking. Digging a little deeper into the odds at BetOnline (find out more with our BetOnline Review), you can pick exactly which year Trump will leave office:
| 2029 or Later | -225 |
| 2028 | +650 |
| 2027 | +650 |
| 2026 | +650 |
| 2025 | +750 |
As expected, the Trump odds at the betting sites for leaving in 2025 are the longest of the bunch. But there isn’t much of a difference between the +750 price for that year and the +650 for the next three. And those years are all the same despite the 2026 midterm elections, which are likely to bring the Democratic Party back into power in the House of Representatives.
Maybe some comparison shopping is in order. Here is the same Trump Exit Date prop at Bovada (find out more with our Bovada Review) as we go to press:
| 2029 or Later | -350 |
| 2028 | +600 |
| 2027 | +600 |
| 2026 | +600 |
| 2025 | +1200 |
That’s a bit more like it. If you’re on Team Trump and you want to bet on him sticking around the full four years (or longer), then you’ll obviously want to grab that -225 price at BetOnline. But if you’re betting specifically on a very quick exit for Trump, +1200 at Bovada is your huckleberry.
Will Trump Get the Quick Hook?
We live in this wonderful age where conspiracy theories abound on both sides. While some wonder if Trump is going to bend the Constitution and try to run for a third term, others suspect, or at least imagine, that the president-elect is up against forces that will prevent him from completing his second.
It’s possible, of course, but like I said, we’re not dealing with that kind of speculation here. If we just go with Trump’s life expectancy profile, at +1200 we’d need Trump to have a 7.69% chance of shuffling off this mortal coil in 2025 to break even; when you include the chances of Trump becoming medically incapacitated to the point where he has to step down, there might be some betting value there – and your payout would happen sooner than it would if you’re picking Trump to finish his full term. Bet accordingly.
