Based on the polls, or the odds at the best political betting sites, there doesn’t appear to be much uncertainty about the 2024 presidential election. As the incumbent, there was never really any doubt that Joe Biden would be the Democratic nominee, and, despite a large group of challengers, Donald Trump jumped out to an early lead in the Republican race and has only added to it as 2023 has gone by.
So, it appears we’re headed toward a rematch of 2020, with both candidates looking even less likable to the other side than they were nearly four years ago. Trump has been hit with a series of high-profile indictments that have strengthened his standing among his base, while Biden has suffered from low favorability ratings and concerns about the economy and his advanced age.
All of this makes for a very complicated soup when trying to decide what’s the best way to bet on the 2024 election.
Practical Advice
First, some practical advice for people looking for a longshot: Each state has its process for getting on the presidential ballot, and filing deadlines for some states are coming up as soon as late October, with more states setting their deadlines in early November. Longshots on the presidential odds at offshore sportsbooks such as BetOnline (Find out more with our BetOnline Review), who have yet to make any declaration that they want to run for office are about to become no-shots.
That list includes many “candidates” who were added merely for entertainment purposes, such as George Clooney and Deion Sanders (both +50,000 odds), as well as candidates who appear surprisingly high on the list, such as Elizabeth Warren (+5,000), Michelle Obama (+1,400), who has the sixth-best odds of anyone and Gavin Newsom, who is in fourth place, at +1000. It also means you can probably pass on the Trump-Hillary rematch from the 2016 prop, which currently has +5,000 odds.
Here are some bets worth considering at the current odds.
Joe Biden
- Odds: (+200) at BetOnline
The incumbent is the underdog, based on current odds. Trump is atop the odds list at +125. President Biden has the opportunity to improve his standing among uncertain voters, however, with the trouble in the Middle East. He has taken on an unquestioned leadership position during the first two weeks of the conflict, being decisive in his support for Israel, even traveling to the are to speak in a war zone.
Any time a president gets to act presidential, it improves his standing in the polls, and it stands in contrast to the bombastic Trump. There’s still plenty of time for things to change—both in the region and with Biden’s standing—but current events have given him the chance to shine and he is currently taking full advantage.
Nikki Haley
Odds: (+900)
The highest-rated of the non-Trump Republican candidates, you’re betting that Trump’s legal troubles catch up to him over the next few months. If the various court cases lined up against him become too much to manage, or if he is somehow prevented from running as the Republican candidate, either by a legal outcome or a decision by the party that it would be too risky, Haley is the reasonable choice to represent the party.
She has come across as the only adult in the room in the first two debates and has significantly increased her position in the polls by her performance. Even if Trump continues to run despite all the indictments, he is 77 years old. The combined stress of the legal trouble and a presidential run could lead to health issues that force him to abandon the race. Which brings us to Kamala Harris.
Kamala Harris
Odds: (+2,500) at BetOnline
The main reason California governor Gavin Newsom has such favorable odds is that he’s considered the top Democratic choice if Biden doesn’t run. As we said earlier, however, time is running out if he wants to appear on the ballot in every state. He has said he isn’t going to run and fully supports the president. If the clock runs out on Newsom, Harris becomes the best fallback option, as Biden’s presumed vice-presidential candidate. If the president’s age or health knocks him out of the race, Harris could pick up the baton.
One other good option, in the same vein as Haley and Harris, is the Trump vs. Biden prop.
Trump v. Biden in 2024?
- No (+160) at BetOnline
Trump is 77 and in massive legal trouble. Biden is 80 and unpopular. There are any number of reasons, from health to party maneuvering, that either candidate could end up not making it to the finish line. The payoff isn’t as high as we’d like to see, but putting some capital down on the possibility that something changes for one of them seems like a reasonable dark-horse bet.
