Betting on politics has grown in popularity in recent years. This is due in large part to the increased availability of online offshore betting sites and apps, as well as the number of states that have loosened regulations on gambling. There has also been an increased interest in politics itself as the country has become more polarized and world events have captured the public’s attention.
Unlike sports and horse betting, there isn’t a large core of serious bettors for political markets—yet. Many casual gamblers will participate on a whim. That means that an organized and intelligent betting strategy can help you take advantage of market inefficiencies that still exist in political betting. In other words, the odds are being set and changed based on the actions of a large number of amateurs. So if you act like a professional gambler in other markets would, you can cash in.
Here are five tips on what to do.
1 Leave Your Politics at The Door
You may have five different MAGA hats hanging in your closet and may have named your dogs Ivanka and Don Jr. That doesn’t mean you should take those feelings into account when evaluating candidates from either party.
The biggest mistake amateur bettors make, whether in sports, politics or anything else, is to bet with their hearts instead of their heads. It’s why odds on the Cowboys, Yankees and Duke basketball are often skewed… people love or hate them and use that emotion to place bets. The same is true, in spades, when it comes to Democrats and Republicans.
Remember: You are betting on who America will elect, not who you think would be best or who would make you move to Canada if they win.
2 Watch the News, All the News
World events are always changing, so you’ll need to keep up with the news. What’s going on with the economy, at the border, in the Middle East or anywhere else around the globe can and will impact election results. You need to know what’s happening, what might happen and what it means.
Back in the day, the news was careful to not appear biased. That has changed significantly. Fox News, CNN and MSNBC will all report on the same news with extremely different messaging. In general, Fox is considered by many observers to be in favor of Republicans, while MSNBC leans toward Democrats.
Is the president cautious and careful in his foreign relations, or does he lack a spine? Is a candidate clearly corrupt from all the indictments he faces or is he strongly standing up in the face of persecution from his political opponents? It depends on what channel you’re watching. Again, you don’t need to know which is true, but you need to know what message the voters are getting and weigh that when deciding who will win.
Social media is often a source of the latest news, but it is also riddled with inaccuracies, both due to sloppy reporting and deliberate attempts to mislead. But it also has an impact on voter opinion, so you need to know what’s being said.
Keeping up with the news from a variety of sources will let you know how each candidate is trending, but it will also give you a feel for the news cycle. Something that seems to be critically important now could possibly be all but forgotten by the time people cast their votes.
3 Avoid the Candy
The Super Bowl is one of the most popular gambling events on the sports calendar. People who don’t bet on anything all year will put money down on some aspect of the big game. That means an army of brand-new bettors, and sports books want to make sure to have plenty of fun ways to take their money. Want to bet on the coin toss to start the game? The length of the anthem? The color outfit the halftime act will wear? It’s all available, and it’s all candy. What amounts to 50/50 picks (or far worse odds) are dressed up with creative props to lure people.
The same is true of political props. It may seem fun to put a little money on Elon Musk being elected president at enormous odds against, but it’s essentially spending that money for a few minutes of laughing.
At the first Republican primary debate, you could bet on which of the candidates on the stage would get the most combined talking time. You could bet on how long into the debate it would be before the phrase “stolen election” was uttered the first time. The props are fun and entertaining, but it’s not going to earn you money. There are better areas to focus your time and attention.
4 Respect the Back Room Deals
Think back to the 2020 presidential primary. Joe Biden struggled early, and it appeared from polls, primary results and delegate counts that Bernie Sanders was on his way to being the Democratic nominee.
Then, suddenly, Biden won in South Carolina, and everything changed. One after another, the other candidates dropped out and endorsed Biden. It was clear that the entire Democratic party was lining up behind him.
The reason? Behind the scenes, the party had decided that Sanders wasn’t the guy to beat Trump in the general election, and once Biden established he was able to win in S.C., they gave him a big push. Four years earlier, when the Democratic committee was hacked, emails were released showing that many party members were similarly trying to make sure Sanders didn’t get the nod.
Bottom line, even when evaluating poll and early voting results, be sure to be aware that things may be going on behind the scenes.
5 Figure out How Much Weight to Put on The Polls
When Obama was reelected in 2012, pollsters at FiveThirtyEight were able to accurately predict the results in all 50 states, and it seemed like, with computer technology and the expertise of analytics, polls were infallible. Then Trump shocked everyone in 2016 by defying the polls and defeating Hillary Clinton. Suddenly, polls were unreliable.
The truth is somewhere in the middle. Polls aren’t some magic crystal ball, but you also shouldn’t disregard them. They are a tool, letting you know a snapshot of what people are thinking. Sources are critical—focus on polls from organizations that have a history of statistically sound polling.
Focus on results outside the margin of error. Realize that a statistically significant three or four-point lead means a great deal. You are betting on the winner, not on there being a landslide. So you don’t need a 10-15 point polling edge for it to mean something.
