Key facts
- Both the House and Senate have very slim majorities in the current Congress, with Republicans holding an eight-seat margin in the 435-member House.
- All 435 seats will be up for election in November.
- Many political betting sites do not yet have odds listed for control of the house but, the ones that do, list the Democrats as the favorite to win control
The upcoming 2024 presidential election has gotten the majority of media coverage as the field narrows down heading into primary voting early next year. However, just as significant are the fates of the two houses of Congress, which will be at stake in November’s nationwide election as well.
A total of 35 seats in the Senate will be on the ballot, more than a third of the 100 members, along with the entire House of Representatives—all 435 of them.
The current make up of both chambers of Congress couldn’t be much tighter. In the Senate, Democrats have essentially a 51-49 majority, with 48 members of the party holding seats and three independents aligning themselves with the Democrats to some degree.
In the House, the Republicans currently have the edge, but it’s a slight one as well—a mere eight seats out of 435. That means, in both chambers, if there is any dissension at all in the majority party, it could be impossible to pass legislation. We saw that when the House twice had marathon votes in an effort to elect a speaker this year, because a small group of Republicans refused to go along with the majority and hung up the process.
It All Comes Down to This
Many seats in the House will be up for election, but the incumbent is at very little risk of losing his or her seat, and if they do, it will likely be in the party primary, meaning that the seat will stay under the control of the same party. That’s because electoral maps in most states are drawn with party affiliations in mind. The district a particular politician represents was often hand-picked to ensure that the party in power would have a majority.
For example, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic representative from New York’s 14th Congressional District, which is drawn to include heavily Democratic neighborhoods. The district voted for Biden by a 73% to 25% margin in 2020 and for Hillary Clinton by a 77-19% margin. So chances are extremely slim that AOC will lose to a Republican challenger and flip a seat to the other party.
So even though there will be 435 elections for house seats, the majority will be determined by a small handful of districts spread across the country. One leading political analyst, the Cook Report, identified 24 “toss up” races, 15 of which are held by Republicans and 9 by Democrats. If the Dems can win 14 of those 24, that would be enough to flip control of the house.
Will It Happen?
While the presidential campaigns are going hot and heavy, there is still plenty to be sorted out in Congressional races. It’s still not clear which candidates will be challenged in a primary race by someone in their own party, let alone who will be running in the other party as their opponent. In fact, many leading political betting sites, such as Bookmaker, don’t even have control of the house odds listed on their political odds pages, focusing almost solely on presidential candidates.
BetOnline has odds on the majority of the house, although there still aren’t odds on individual house races. The Democrats are listed as the favorite to flip the house majority in their favor, with -140 odds. The Republicans are at +100 to keep control (find out more with our BetOnline Review).
Factors to Consider
The presidential race will likely have an impact on the control of the House. A strong presidential candidate can bring out the voters from his or her party, and increased numbers of voters have a down-ballot impact. In other words, if voters are excited about their party’s presidential candidate and go out to vote, they’re also likely to vote for the congressional candidate from that party as well.
Currently, Joe Biden does not seem to be exciting the Democratic voters, to the extent that there has been talk on and off during 2023 that the party may want to consider replacing him atop the ticket. If the party remains apathetic about their presidential candidate, that will make it far tougher for the Democrats to wrest control of the house away from the GOP.
Other issues have also been proven to bring out the voters. Abortion is currently a hot-button issue, and ballot measures related to abortion have brought out voters in droves. If any of the toss-up House races are in states where abortion will be on the ballot, that will impact the outcome of their election. On the flip side, states where abortion has already been decided will not be able to attract a large number of enthusiastic voters with that issue. For instance, Ohio voted in 2023 to amend its state constitution to guarantee abortion. Three of the 24 toss-up seats are in Ohio. Democrats will not be able to look for supporters of abortion rights to come out to defend that issue, since it’s a fight Ohio has already settled.
The Pick
The Republicans have made headlines in the House, and not for many good reasons. It took them more than a dozen votes to elect their Speaker in January, their first order of business after getting a majority. Then they fired him just over six months later and again struggled to elect a new one. Trump has a base of rabid supporters but turns off a large portion of voters just as rapidly, and his ability to get candidates down the ballot voted into office has been a mixed bag over the last few elections. We like the Democrats’ chances to flip the house and will take them to win the majority at -140 at BetOnline.
