Some things are even more important than who’s going to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. As we go to press, Hurricane Milton is bearing down on the west coast of Central Florida, with landfall expected Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Milton is a Category 4 storm at the moment, although it did reach Cat 5 for a while on Tuesday.
The 2024 election is still important, though. And the election odds could change significantly in the wake of Hurricane Milton. The largely botched response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 helped take the Republican Party down a notch in the 2006 mid-terms, handing the Democratic Party control of both the House and Senate. It could happen again this November.
Maybe it already is. The past week has seen Donald Trump and the Republicans move to -120 on the politics odds board at politics betting sites like Bovada, with Kamala Harris and the Democrats even money to retain the White House. We’ve also seen Trump ramp up his attacks on the Dems for their response to Hurricane Milton, and Hurricane Helene before that.
Like they say, perception is reality when it comes to politics. The federal government will be in the spotlight this week as they deal with the effects and after-effects of Helene and Milton; as with the two presidential debates, either the Democrats will meet the high bar being set for their performance and stabilize the Harris odds, or the Dems will botch it and watch the Trump odds improve.
U.S. Election Odds
| Candidate | Party | BetOnline | Bovada | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Republican | -175 | -165 | -184 |
| Kamala Harris | Democrat | +153 | +145 | +163 |
Are the Democrats Botching It?
Not according to credible reports. But the accusations Trump and the GOP are making go well beyond the question of competence. Trump claimed, without evidence, that the Democrats were “going out of their way” to withhold Helene relief funds from Republican-leaning parts of North Carolina, and that the Federal Emergency Management Agency had run out of money because it had all gone to programs for illegal immigrants.
Elon Musk has been busy amplifying this misinformation, both in public and through his social media platform X, fka Twitter. As far as the election and the election odds are concerned, it doesn’t matter what’s true or not, as long as enough people believe it to be so. But when Musk tells you that the election betting markets are “more accurate than the polls, as actual money is on the line,” don’t buy that jive.
Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line. https://t.co/WrsqZ2z8pp
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 7, 2024
What About the Sun Belt?
The Atlantic hurricane season (June 1-November 30) typically hits the Gulf of Mexico like several gigatons of bricks, so the spotlight that’s on the Dems will burn even brighter across most of the “Sun Belt” swing states that Trump and the Republicans are relying on to win the election. That includes North Carolina, where the GOP has improved from -130 to -145 as the “Black Nazi” scandal surrounding gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson ebbs from view.
It also includes Georgia, where the Republicans have pushed their edge from -160 to -185 in recent weeks. Trump has accused President Joe Biden of “sleeping” and not answering the phone when Gov. Brian Kemp (R) called regarding Hurricane Helene; Kemp confirmed on Monday that he had indeed spoken with Biden the previous night, but Trump continues to push his chosen narrative.
Meanwhile, in the reality-based community, the Biden-Harris Administration has to demonstrate effective management of the 1-2 punch delivered by Helene and Milton if they want to keep their election odds from slipping. But maybe there is a silver lining for the Dems, and a caveat for Trump supporters; it’s possible that Florida (-725 at press time to vote Republican) is more of a “purple” state than the electoral map would have us believe. Show the people you can do the job, and they just might put you back in the White House.
