The first of Donald Trump’s four criminal trials is underway. How will it change the odds for November 5 at political betting sites?
Odds are that Donald Trump is going to be found guilty in at least one of the four criminal cases for which he’s been indicted. Maybe even each of them; at press time, Bodog Sportsbook has Trump favored in all four cases, with the Stormy Daniels hush money case the most likely at –250 to deliver one or more guilty verdicts.
This also happens to be the least damaging of the four cases to Trump’s reputation. Do enough people care about his possible guilt to move the needle in the 2024 U.S. presidential election? Let’s see what the numbers have to say.
What Is Trump on Trial For?
The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump covers 34 different felony charges of falsifying business records, with the following criminal intents:
- Violating federal campaign finance limits
- Illegally influencing the 2016 election
- Committing tax fraud
The records themselves deal primarily with a “hush money” payment of US$130,000 made to pornographic film actor Stormy Daniels in October 2016, as part of a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) regarding Daniels’s claims that she and Trump had a sexual encounter in 2006.
There were other payments made besides this one. A former Trump Tower doorman was allegedly paid $30,000 by American Media Inc. (AMI), owners of the National Enquirer, for the exclusive rights to a story claiming that Trump had fathered a child out of wedlock. And a Playboy model later identified as Karen McDougal was allegedly paid $150,000 by AMI for a story about her having a sexual relationship with Trump.
Neither of those stories was published. According to Bragg, this was part of a co-ordinated effort between AMI and Trump’s people to “catch and kill” any negative stories about him heading into the 2016 election. Trump’s lawyer at the time, Michael Cohen, has already gone to prison for his role in these efforts; AMI reportedly cut a deal with federal prosecutors to reveal details about the scheme.
How Strong Is the Case Against Trump?
Quite strong indeed. Trump has pled “not guilty” to all 34 counts, but now that the indictment has been unsealed and a statement of facts released, we can see that New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg has put together a solid case.
The evidence reportedly includes checks with what appears to be Trump’s signature on them, along with other documents from the Trump Organization and elsewhere under the Trump umbrella. That evidence, plus testimony from Cohen and AMI officials, figures to be damning for the former president.
If this case has a weak underbelly from a legal standpoint, it’s the way Bragg has elevated these 34 counts to class E felonies instead of misdemeanors. Under New York state law, falsifying business records becomes a felony if done with “intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof.”
In theory, Trump and his team might be able to convince the jury he was unaware and had no criminal intent. However, there’s certainly a preponderance of evidence against him, and cases like this are prosecuted in New York all the time. Bragg and his people know what they’re doing.
Does Anybody Care?
They will if Trump is convicted. A Wall Street Journal poll from last December had Trump ahead of incumbent president Joe Biden by four percentage points in the presidential election, but Biden ahead 47-46 should Trump be found guilty. That five-point swing grew to seven in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll from the same month.
The numbers look worse for Trump when you bring your focus down to the state level – especially the following six “swing” states:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
According to a New York Times/Siena poll from last October, these six states combined would provide a 14-point swing in Biden’s favor should Trump be convicted. That would make the 2024 election close to a slam-dunk for Biden.
Imagine how people will react if Trump gets put in jail. That part seems unlikely; only something like 1 in 10 New York cases of this nature sees the perpetrator doing hard time. But then again, none of those perps was a former U.S. president trying to retake the White House.
In the meantime, the running polls at FiveThirtyEight have Trump’s “unfavorability” rating at 52.9% as we go to press, exactly where it was when his trial began on April 15. If that needle’s going to move between now and November 5, this case will have to produce more than just Trump falling asleep in court to change anyone’s vote.
