Delays, delays. The more smoke Donald Trump and his legal team throw at the justice system, the longer it takes for said justice to be served – especially if Trump’s legal team includes several members of the Supreme Court.
As you may have seen in the news, the Supremes were busy last Thursday deliberating Trump’s claim that he has absolute immunity from the charges the U.S. Justice Department brought against him for attempting to overturn the Democratic Party’s victory in the 2020 election.
Or at least they were supposed to be talking about Trump. Mostly, they were talking about presidents in general, and what might happen in the future. Justice Neil Gorsuch called it a ruling “for the ages.” It will determine, in theory, which actions a president can take without facing charges from Congress.
Meanwhile, in the here and now, the Donald Trump odds at Bovada (find out more with our Bovada Review), one of our top politics betting sites, suggest it’s very unlikely he’ll be put in jail before the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Bovada has Yes priced at +1000 for Trump serving at least 24 hours of hard time by November 5; No is on the board at a very chalky -4000.
We might need to look elsewhere to find some betting value. There’s plenty to unpack from last Thursday’s oral arguments, but let’s focus on the politics odds for now, and how the justices are threatening to shake things up by doing as little as possible.
What Is The Supreme Court?
A very important question indeed. To understand the Trump odds and how to bet on politics, you first have to understand the players on the field. The Supreme Court of the United States is the highest federal court in the land, and consists of nine justices with lifetime tenure: the Chief Justice, and eight associates.
These justices are nominated by the president, then the U.S. Senate (the upper chamber of Congress, which decides whether to enact the bills put forward by the lower chamber, the U.S. House of Representatives) provides “advice and consent” before the nominee is appointed.
Who’s On The Supreme Court?
That’s the tricky part. Of the nine current Supreme Court justices, six were assigned by Republican presidents – including three by Trump: Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.
The remaining three Republican appointees are Clarence Thomas (G.H.W. Bush), Samuel Alito (G.W. Bush), and Chief Justice John Roberts (G.W. Bush). That leaves only three Democratic appointees: Sonia Sotomayor (Obama), Elena Kagan (Obama) and Ketanji Brown Jackson (Biden).
After stonewalling President Barack Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland to replace the deceased Antonin Scalia ahead of the 2016 election – an unprecedented course of action by the Senate – the Republicans were able to carve out this 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court.
With that majority, the conservative justices have overturned Roe v. Wade, thus freeing Republican-led states to implement near-total bans on abortions. They’ve also rolled back the powers granted to minorities under the Voting Rights Act, and invalidated several important state laws, including New York’s restrictions on carrying concealed handguns outside the home.
Will The Supreme Court Grant Trump Immunity?
Maybe not entirely. During their oral arguments for Trump v. United States (2024), the pending Supreme Court case that the Trump team launched in response to his federal trial, the Supremes struggled over how to separate “private acts” from “official acts.” They also hemmed and hawed over whether presidents should have “qualified immunity” from prosecution for official acts, or total freedom.
After nearly three hours of deliberation, the conservative justices appeared ready to punt the case back to the lower courts, where the specific indictments of Trump would be sorted into “private” and “official” buckets. Assuming that’s what the Supremes end up doing, this would effectively make it impossible for the Trump’s trial to proceed until after the election.
This is where things get really interesting for bettors. As we go to press, Bovada has Trump priced at +115 to regain the presidency, ahead of incumbent Joe Biden at +120.
| Candidate | Party | BetOnline | Bovada | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Republican | -175 | -165 | -184 |
| Kamala Harris | Democrat | +153 | +145 | +163 |
It’s also now a dead heat at -115 whether Trump will be found guilty on one or more charges in this federal case regarding the 2020 election.
If you pick “No” for that second bet and the case gets canceled, you win. And it’s almost certain that the case will be quashed if Trump wins the presidency. If he doesn’t, maybe the Supremes find a way to step in and grant Trump enough immunity to have those charges thrown out. It’s not quite a freeroll, but it’s close. Bet accordingly.
