You may have noticed the steady drumbeat of sports betting scandals getting louder and louder. I’ve been an advocate for legalized betting for over 20 years now; I never said the leagues themselves should get into bed with the sportsbooks. That’s a whole other kettle of fish.
At least we haven’t lost any top-tier players yet. On Tuesday, June 4, Major League Baseball cleared Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani of any wrongdoing, shortly after his former interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, pled guilty to charges stemming from illegal gambling activities.
Does this really mean Ohtani is in the clear? And has it had any impact on the baseball odds? Let’s investigate.
What Did Mizuhara Plead Guilty To?
One count of bank fraud, and one count of filing a false tax return. The bank fraud happened when Mizuhara gained access to Ohtani’s bank account and used it to wire money to underground bookies in Southern California. Authorities say nearly $17 million was stolen this way.
The tax fraud is mundane and inconsequential; it carries a maximum sentence of three years in federal prison, while the bank fraud could send Mizuhara up the river for 30 years. We’ll learn his fate sometime after his sentencing hearing on October 25, at 5 PM ET.
Why Was Ohtani Under Investigation?
Because it wasn’t clear at first whether Ohtani himself was involved in the wire transfers. On March 20, the Los Angeles Times reported that Ohtani’s name had come up in an investigation of Orange County bookmaker Mathew Bowyer, and that Ohtani’s lawyers responded by claiming their client was the victim of “massive theft.”
After this story was published, ESPN reported that a spokesperson for Ohtani had told them it was Ohtani who was behind the transfers covering Mizuhara’s gambling debts. He then made Mizuhara available to ESPN for a 90-minute interview, where Mizuhara reportedly spoke “in great detail” about the situation.
That’s where this story takes a sharp right turn. As ESPN was about to publish their story, the spokesperson recanted, and said Ohtani’s lawyers would provide a statement – which they did, claiming Ohtani had been stolen from. By that afternoon, Mizuhara had changed his story as well.
Did Ohtani Bet On Baseball?
Probably not. But if Ohtani had indeed wired money to Bowyer to cover Mizuhara’s debts, that’s still illegal in the State of California – and Major League Baseball would have been forced to respond.
I’m not about to speculate here whether Mizuhara was asked/ordered to fall on his sword. The important thing for our purposes is that he’s pled guilty, Ohtani has been exonerated, and the Dodgers can continue their drive to the World Series with their best player leading the charge.
Have the Dodgers’ Title Odds Changed?
Maybe a little. In the days after the Ohtani betting scandal first broke, which was just as the 2024 season was getting underway, the Dodgers were +350 at various Vegas locations to win the World Series. Then they were still +350 on the MLB odds board at the start of May, when they were 20-13.
Here we are now in mid-June, and the Dodgers are continuing apace at 41-26 (minus-1.46 betting units) as we go to press, the only winning team in the National League West. They’re also +300 favorites on the World Series odds at top sportsbooks. Nothing much has changed, really.
If anything, it’s remarkable that Ohtani (.947 OPS) has performed so well considering he’s lost his longtime interpreter/sidekick. But beware: Ohtani’s level of play has gotten worse since the season began:
- March/April – 1.017 OPS
- May – .976 OPS
- June – .594 OPS
That June stat only covers eight games – six of those on the road – so we need to sound the official Small Sample Size Alert here. However, you might want to keep a close eye on Ohtani over the next few days, and bet accordingly if you see him struggling.
