Key Facts
- The race for one of California’s two Senate seats is wide open, for the first time in more than three decades.
- Democrat Adam Schiff, a member of the House since 2000, is currently leading in the polls over a group that includes former MLB star Steve Garvey.
- The California primary in March will advance the top two vote-getters, regardless of party.
California will vote to elect a new U.S. senator in 2024, and, for the first time in a long time, there is no clear-cut favorite. The senate seat that formerly belonged to Diane Feinstein, who died in office in 2023, will come open, and the state will hold a pair of votes—one to elect the replacement to finish out the remaining two months of Feinstein’s term and one to elect the permanent senator from the state.
This is just the second California senate race without an incumbent running since 1992, and the other election, in 2016, saw current vice-president Kamala Harris take a big early lead in the polls. So this is expected to be the first wide-open senate race in the state in 32 years.
Laphonza Butler, chosen by governor Gavin Newsom as the interim senator, replacing Feinstein until the special election, announced that she will not run, further throwing the race open.
Why It’s Important
The U.S. Senate has 100 members, with two coming from each state, and currently, the margin between the two major political parties is razor-thin.
Currently, there are 48 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and three independents. However, the independents caucus with the Democrats, giving that party a two-seat edge in voting. So a seat in the traditionally liberal stronghold of California becoming open could represent an opportunity for the Republicans to flip an important vacancy. The vice president casts the deciding vote when the Senate is deadlocked, and with 2024 also being a presidential election year, that tiebreaker vote is also up for grabs, making the party breakdown of the Senate even more critical.
Who’s In—the Democrats
As might be expected, the race has attracted a large number of high-profile candidates. Also as might be expected, most of them are Democrats, although not all.
Perhaps the biggest political name to put his hat in the ring is Adam Schiff. A member of the House of Representatives since 2000, Schiff rose to prominence as an opponent of Donald Trump. As chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Schiff was chosen to lead the impeachment inquiry and trial of Trump during his first impeachment. He became a frequent guest on news channel shows and Sunday morning political talk shows.
Two other Democratic members of the House are also in the race. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee have both launched campaigns. Porter, who has been in Congress since 2018, was the first to declare her candidacy, announcing her run while Feinstein was still alive and deciding whether to retire or run for reelection again in 2024. Lee also declared while Feinstein was still serving. A member of the House since 1998, she is 76 years old and has promised that, if elected, she would serve one term only.
The Democratic field also includes surgeon Sepi Gilani, children’s book author John Rose, investment firm CEO Perry Pound and former news anchorperson Christina Pascucci. Google executive Lexi Reese launched a campaign but has already dropped out.
Who’s In—the Republicans
More than a half dozen Republicans are also in the race, including several former candidates, a teacher, a farmer, an art dealer and a retired defense worker.
The biggest name in the GOP field, however, is former MLB All-Star Steve Garvey. A standout first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, Garvey was a popular player in the state. He has been a supporter of Donald Trump and an outspoken opponent of abortion, which might make it tough to win the race in a state that voted for Biden by a 34-point margin in 2020.
The Key Date
The race will narrow down on March 5, when California holds its primary election, along with 14 states, representing about one-third of the delegates in the presidential election, all holding their primaries on the same day.
California will also advance its top two candidates for the Senate seat on primary day. Unlike most states, where Democratic and Republican primaries are separate and used by each party to select their nominee, the California primary is nonpartisan. The top two vote-getters in the primary will advance to the November ballot, regardless of party affiliation.
The Pick
Garvey has shaken up the race, and, while he is a longshot to win the seat, he can certainly throw a wrench into the works in the March primary. Since launching his campaign, Garvey has consistently polled either second or third. Currently, he trails Schiff and Porter but leads Lee. If he can leapfrog Porter, he could thrust the race into the national spotlight, with both parties pouring money in to contest a race that once was thought to be automatically in the Democratic column.
Schiff currently has a five-point lead over Porter in a Public Policy Institute poll and a four-point edge in an LA Times poll. He has led in fundraising and polling throughout the campaign.
It’s no surprise that he’s the betting favorite, but the odds might be a bit of a surprise. At BetOnline, one of our top politics betting sites, he’s currently listed as a prohibitive favorite at -165, while Porter is at +250. Garvey, at +700 is probably a better bet than Lee, at +600, but, given the odds, our money is on Porter. While she’s an underdog, she represents a better value than taking Schiff at his current odds.
The Pick: Katie Porter (+250) at BetOnline (find out more with our BetOnline Review)
