Key facts
- More than 30 states are challenging whether Trump is eligible to be on the presidential ballot in 2024.
- Colorado has already ruled that he should be disqualified, but that decision is being challenged, and the Supreme Court will hear the case in February.
- The issue revolves around whether he instigated the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, and whether that constitutes an insurrection.
Donald Trump currently leads the Republican field for the 2024 presidential nomination and is outperforming likely Democratic challenger Joe Biden in most polls. However, it’s still not clear whether voters will get to register their opinions on the controversial former president.
Cases in more than 30 states are currently challenging whether Trump is even eligible to be on the ballot in 2024. Colorado became the first state to decide that he should be disqualified and ruled in late December to take him off the 2024 ballot. As expected, Trump is challenging that ruling, and the U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments in the matter in early February.
Let’s look into the controversial figure’s situation, which you may want to consider when placing bets on politics.
What Is the Issue?
Trump’s eligibility revolves around his role in the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. A group of Trump supporters stormed the building to interrupt Congress’ counting and certification of the electoral votes in the 2020 presidential election. This came after a fiery Trump speech to the group, where he repeated his claims that he had won the election, but the victory had been stolen by Democrats and Joe Biden. He implored the crowd to walk to the Capitol. He told them to “fight real hard” and “show strength… be strong.” He also told them “If you don’t fight like hell, you won’t have a country anymore.”
The question is whether those statements were made with the intent of inciting the crowd into the riot that ensued. Did he instigate the attack on the Capitol? And does that attack, and his role in it, constitute an insurrection?
If it does, then it would appear to be a violation of the 14th Amendment, which, in section 3, prohibits anyone who “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the government from holding federal office. It was implemented after the Civil War, to keep anyone who served in the Confederacy from holding office.
Who Should Be Making This Decision?
In addition to deciding whether Trump’s actions amount to a violation of section 3, there are other issues to decide. One is whether states are the ones that should be making the decision on who committed an insurrection, or is that a job for the federal government. The House of Representatives impeached Trump after January 6, charging him with “incitement of insurrection,” but he wasn’t convicted. So, are state courts able to overrule that decision?
Another issue is whether the presidency is included in the ban on federal office. The text of the amendment explaining the ban reads, “No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States.” Being president is not explicitly stated in that long list, and Trump’s lawyers will likely argue that the omission was intentional, meaning the ban doesn’t apply.
States Involved in The Argument
After Colorado moved to disqualify Trump, Maine also took him off the ballot in that state. However, California, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire all had similar challenges and decided to leave Trump on the ballot. Several other states have dismissed lawsuits challenging Trump’s eligibility, saying that the parties filing the suit don’t have legal standing. At least nine other states, including New York and Texas, have cases pending.
The Court’s Dilemma
The Supreme Court has a 6-3 conservative majority, meaning that Trump is likely to prevail if the judges vote with their affiliation. However, the court will likely want to make a strong statement in this case, to avoid dozens of similar challenges for every future candidate—Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican presidential candidate, has already threatened to remove Joe Biden from the ballot in his state. It’s believed that Chief Justice John Roberts will try to get a unanimous 9-0 verdict in the case.
In favor of reversing the disqualification decision is the idea that removing a candidate leading in the polls from the ballot takes the decision away from the voters and would be a blow to democracy. It would also open the floodgates for ballot challenges going forward.
In favor of upholding the disqualification is the sheer horror that the images of the crowd storming the Capitol to stop an elected candidate from being certified. It is also considered a blow against democracy.
What Will Happen
With the 6-3 conservative lean of the court, and the fact that a reversal would put the decision back in the hands of the people, the best bet is that the court will go against the Colorado decision, and Trump will remain on the state’s ballot. It will remain to be seen whether the vote is along party lines or whether Roberts and the justices can make a statement.
