It’s been two weeks since the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and it looks like the hand-wringing is already over. The incumbent Democratic Party isn’t nearly as shocked to be turfed out of the White House as they were in 2016 when Donald Trump defied the political betting sites– and every rule in the book – to defeat Hillary Clinton. That was an upset; this was a coin flip.
There was definitely some finger-pointing after Kamala Harris lost to Trump. But it was slow to start, and it ebbed fairly quickly. The news cycle has already moved on to the incoming Trump Administration nominees, but there’s also a growing acceptance that larger forces are at work here. Yes, even larger than Trump.
It boils down to this: prices have gone up around the world, in part because of the COVID-19 pandemic, but wages haven’t followed suit. So, while the global economic indicators may look positive, middle- and lower-income earners aren’t getting their share. Something has to change.
That something is the government. CNN’s exit polls showed 72% of American voters were unhappy about where the country was headed, split between 43% “dissatisfied” and 29% “angry.” So out go the Democrats.
Let’s take a look at the election odds board at Bovada (find out more with our Bovada Review) and see who’s next.
Is Justin Trudeau Toast?
On both sides. Trudeau’s Liberal Party is +500 to form Canada’s next government, with populist Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party the clear favorite (excuse me, favourite) at –1000. Poilievre, being Canadian, is a more polite version of Trump, while Trudeau’s popularity is fading fast after nearly 10 years in office.
That’s a chalky price to pay at –1000, but it’s about as close to a deadbolt lock as you’re going to get in politics betting. The only trick is that the Liberals and the New Democratic Party (+4000) could form a “united front” of sorts to defeat the Conservatives, not unlike France’s President Emmanuel Macron and his Ensemble alliance with the New Popular Front this past summer.
Is the UK Next?
The shine on Keir Starmer’s Labour government may already be off, but the United Kingdom is still only four months removed from turfing their own Conservatives, who had been in power since 2010. That’s why Labour is the –175 chalk at press time to hold the most seats in Parliament after the next UK general election.
The thing is, that election doesn’t have to happen until August 15, 2029. By then, the UK will have had plenty of time to suffer the same economic slings and arrows as everyone else. Starmer might head this off at the pass by calling the election early, which is common practice, but as we’ve seen everywhere else in the world, patience is running thin these days.
The Conservatives are second on UK election odds board at +200, but they’re in disarray right now; the “real” star of the show at this point is Farage, the leader of Reform UK (+700) and the face of Brexit. Farage, being British, is a more genteel version of Trump. And he’s ready to swoop in and claim the Conservative constituency for himself.
Will Farage Become PM?
Farage is priced at +800 to become the next Prime Minister, well behind Starmer at +200 and new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch at +300. But what if Farage leads a Reform takeover of the Conservatives, the way Preston Manning did in Canada? Having that Tory imprimatur would certainly improve Farage’s chances of winning.
It might also complicate grading and paying out this bet. Manning’s Alberta-based Reform Party of Canada became the Canadian Alliance in 2000 as their movement spread nationwide, then they “merged” with the Progressive Conservative Party (themselves a spent force) three years later to form the Conservative Party of Canada. You’d have an easier time sorting out the People’s Front of Judea from the Judean People’s Front.
In any case, you have to pay attention to these things when you bet on politics. If you’re going to bet on Reform to win the most seats, keep in mind they might not exist as such by the time the next UK election rolls around – but Farage almost certainly will.
