Well, that didn’t take long. On the heels of my award-smelting article about Polymarket and the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the odds at BetOnline, one of our top politics betting sites, have moved towards the incumbent. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are now dead-even at -105 to become president; Biden was the +120 underdog before that, with Trump at -120.
My words can indeed move mountains, but there are other forces at work here. The way events are unfolding, it seems the American public is more willing to put their faith in Biden, and less likely to give Trump a second term in office. Is “Joe-mentum” a thing? Let’s investigate.
What About Kennedy?
First, if you’re among those hoping for Robert F. Kennedy to swoop in and steal the election, take heart: Kennedy’s odds of becoming president have also grown shorter, improving from +2500 to +2200 at BetOnline (find out more with our BetOnline Review).
It’s the other potential spoilers who are falling off the map. Michelle Obama, the former First Lady, is no longer alone in third place on the presidential odds board; she’s tied with Kennedy at +2200 as we go to press, down from +1600 last month.
Meanwhile, not only are Gavin Newsom’s White House chances slipping away at Polymarket, but his presidential odds have also dropped from +2500 to +3300, leaving the California governor in a tie with Vice President Kamala Harris.
This explains why Biden’s odds of winning a second term have improved by 25 “cents” using the American odds format, while Trump’s have only fallen 15 cents. But it will be harder for Biden to improve his odds further if Kennedy keeps doing the same.
| Candidate | Party | BetOnline | Bovada | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Republican | -175 | -165 | -184 |
| Kamala Harris | Democrat | +153 | +145 | +163 |
Is Momentum Even A Thing?
That’s been the debate in sports betting circles for quite some time. It’s fashionable for quants to pooh-pooh the idea of momentum as something we can only identify after the fact, once a team or player has strung together a series of wins or losses. But if you’ve ever played sports, you know that there are times when you get “in the zone,” and times when you get “the yips.” It happens to the best of us.
Politics isn’t sports. The events that move the political needle are much larger than any one man – but for the most part, they’ve been breaking in Biden’s favor of late. The most recent numbers on the economy have been particularly strong; the Labor Department reported 303,000 additional jobs filled in March, marking 39 straight months of growth and knocking the unemployment rate down from 3.9% to 3.8%.
U.S. employers hired far more workers than expected in March. According to the Labor Department’s most recent employment report, nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000 jobs last month.
Source: https://t.co/MtSNuO41Wi pic.twitter.com/UI7YSghhBt— Graham Wealth Partners (@CGWM_GrahamWP) April 8, 2024
Meanwhile, Biden is taking a harder stance toward Israel – or more specifically, towards Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pushing him for greater protection of civilians in Gaza as Israel continues its fight against Hamas.
This is about as hot as a hot-button issue can get, but according to Pew Research Center numbers from February 15-23, 66% of Americans found the way Israel was conducting the fight to be “completely unacceptable.” That was before the IDF killed seven members of chef Jose Andres’ team of World Central Kitchen workers on April 1.
Is Donald Trump Losing It?
That’s the question everybody’s been asking since 2016 – if not well before that. But the latest wave of Joe-mentum has Trump waffling on some issues that he normally uses to rile up his red-meat base. Mmmmmm… waffles and red meat.
When it comes to Israel/Palestine, Trump has modified his pro-Israel stance, claiming they’re “losing the PR war” by releasing video footage of the conflict. Trump said this last month during an interview with Israel Hayom, which is published by Miriam Adelson, the widow of late casino mogul Sheldon Adelson; they’ve donated over $100 million to Trump’s political campaigns.
Then you have the larger blowback against Republican efforts to restrict abortion access in the U.S. Trump has always been closer to center on this issue than most of his supporters, but after previously suggesting he’d support a federal ban at 15 weeks of pregnancy, Trump posted a video Monday on his Truth Social account where he said abortion rights should fall under state jurisdiction.
Ah, yes: Truth Social. It looked like Trump was being thrown a lifeline when his Trump Media & Technology Group was valued as high as $11 billion after going public on March 26. At press time, that valuation is down to $2.9 billion, shedding another 8% on Monday after dropping 12% on Friday.
Put it all together, and you’ve got what looks like momentum to Joe Biden fans, and a concerning trend for Donald Trump fans. Bet accordingly.
