Joe Biden’s stirring SOTU address may have saved his presidency – if the latest odds at political betting sites are any indication.
For an old man, Joe Biden sure has a lot of pep in his step. Biden gave his annual State of the Union address on March 7, before a joint session of Congress at the Capitol Building in Washington – and it was a banger. The president came out with both guns blazing, attacking Republicans at every opportunity while trumpeting Democratic achievements during his first term in office.
Biden’s fiery State of the Union address really shut up his haters. *cough* Jon Stewart *cough* pic.twitter.com/rafxuHKvEI
— The Daily Show (@TheDailyShow) March 12, 2024
Did Biden’s SOTU speech move the needle? Maybe not, according to the polls, but if you look at the political odds as we go to press, Biden is definitely closer to locking down a second term in the Oval Office.
What Did Biden Say?
Actually, Biden’s address was most notable for what he didn’t say: Donald Trump’s name.
Instead of referring directly to the former president, Biden used the term “my predecessor” a total of 13 times – including right off the bat, when he laced into Trump for his threats about allowing Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” (Trump’s words) to NATO members who don’t meet their defense spending targets.
Biden followed up by also calling Trump’s continued attacks on the legitimacy of the 2020 election the “gravest threat to democracy” the United States has faced since the Civil War. Within this framework, Biden underlined the differences between Democrats and MAGA Republicans when it comes to policy, especially abortion, which figures to be the No. 1 wedge issue in this year’s election.
Did Biden Look Old?
Not for someone who’s 81.
Biden has taken a lot of flak for being an octogenarian, but his SOTU performance was electric and largely gaffe-free. He even joked about his age, but also made a point about Trump (age 77) being nearly as old; ultimately, Biden said that the issue isn’t how old they are, but “how old our ideas are.”
Biden’s willingness to drop hands with the Republicans in the crowd may have been the night’s biggest highlight. The more they heckled the president, the more energy they seemed to give him. He even engaged leading Republican disruptor Marjorie Taylor Greene directly, holding up one of her “Say Her Name: Laken Riley” buttons while attacking her party’s intransigence on passing border security legislation.
Was the SOTU a Win for Biden?
It would seem that way. In the wake of the Super Tuesday results, Biden’s odds to win the presidency were +175 at BetOnline (find out more with our BetOnline Review); now, after a stirring performance in front of 32.2 million viewers – up from 27.3 million last year – the incumbent is +120 as we go to press.
With those box office numbers came rave reviews. The post-SOTU polls were largely favorable for Biden, with CNN reporting “just over 60% of Americans reacting positively, and 35% “very positively.” Their polls suggest that Biden has won over a large number of independent voters with his address.
Does It Even Matter?
Maybe not. While Biden’s presidential odds are getting shorter, Trump’s have held steady at –120. It’s the other remaining names on the political odds board who are fading away now that Trump vs. Biden II is all but booked.
Michelle Obama remains the third favorite at BetOnline to become president, down only a shade from +1600 to +1400; it’s carnage after that, with Gavin Newson (+2500) and Kamala Harris (+3300) sinking like stones.
Biden’s SOTU address may have been a winner, but then again, so was Oppenheimer at the Oscars. Do people even care about these things anymore? Despite his strong SOTU numbers, Biden’s approval ratings at FiveThirtyEight haven’t changed much:
- March 6: Disapprove 56.6%, Approve 37.9%
- March 8: Disapprove 56.0%, Approve 38.1%
- March 13: Disapprove 56.0%, Approve 38.0%
But at least Biden got some of those independent voters to stop disapproving. These marginal victories at the center are pretty much all that’s left on today’s political battlefield – and even more important in what’s expected to be yet another close race on November 5.
What About Katie Britt?
Ah, yes: the Republican SOTU rebuttal, as delivered by the junior senator from Alabama (Tommy Tuberville is the senior). This was a political theater in the realest sense, except Britt was in front of a television camera instead of a live audience, and let me tell you, she’s no Jean Stapleton.
Again, this latest salvo from the MAGA Republicans – who are now almost fully in charge of the GOP, after installing Michael Whatley and Lara Trump as chair and co-chair of the Republican National Committee last Friday – has had zero effect on the political odds. At least in the short term; bet accordingly.
