The biggest day of the 2024 U.S. presidential primaries is on our doorstep. Here’s why you should circle March 5 on your calendar.
Can we still call it “Super Tuesday” if we already know who’s going to win? You don’t need a crystal ball to see that Donald Trump and Joe Biden are set to face each other in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. However, if there’s any doubt, it should be erased once March 5 rolls around.
That’s when primary elections will be held in 16 states, plus American Samoa. With over a third of the nation’s delegates for grabs, Super Tuesday is usually the day that separates the contenders from the pretenders.
This isn’t your usual presidential election, though, so let’s see what’s going on with this year’s primaries before going into the political betting sites.
Which States Vote on Super Tuesday?
The list of states holding their primaries (or caucuses) this March 5 includes the following, in alphabetical order:
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arkansas
- California
- Colorado
- Iowa
- Maine
- Massachusetts
- Minnesota
- North Carolina
- Oklahoma
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
Iowa’s on this year’s Super Tuesday list because that’s when their Democratic Party mail-in caucus will stop accepting votes. American Samoa is holding a Democratic caucus with an estimated 11 delegates up for grabs; the date of their Republican caucus is TBD as we go to press.
Why Is Super Tuesday Important?
Because so many delegates will be won that day.
An estimated 1,215 Republican delegates (50% of the party) and 1,420 Democratic delegates (36%) are at stake; only once since the start of the primaries in 1984 did the overall Super Tuesday winner fail to become their party’s nominee, and that was back in ‘84, when Gary Hart fumbled the bag for the Democrats.
We don’t have to wait with bated breath this year.
Donald Trump has already taken an early 110-20 lead over Nikki Haley for the Republican nomination, with 1,215 delegates the threshold to reach. And it’s a clear sweep for Joe Biden thus far, 91-0 over Dean Phillips (1,969 threshold).
Not that Trump and Biden are universally beloved by their respective parties. The nomination process has been tightened in recent years so that more states are “winner-take-all,” or close to it, when it comes to handing out delegates. Haley, for example, won just three of the 50 Republican delegates in the South Carolina primary despite taking 39.5% of the vote.
What Else Happens on Super Tuesday?
Aside from the presidential primaries and caucuses, there’s a handful of key primaries for other races:
- California’s intra-Democratic primary for their open Senate seat.
- Alabama’s GOP congressional primary.
- North Carolina’s gubernatorial primary
California will also be voting on Proposition 1, aka the Behavioral Health Services Program and Bond Measure. A “yes” vote here will see the state issue $6.38 billion in bonds, with $2.0 billion earmarked for housing and the remainder for mental health care and drug/alcohol treatment.
Will Nikki Haley Quit After Super Tuesday?
That’s the big question for Republicans – and they might not like the answer.
Haley vowed to remain in the race until at least March 5, having outperformed the polls heading into the South Carolina primary. And as long as donors are willing to fund her campaign, there’s ample reason for her to remain in the race up until the very end, no matter the delegate count.
At the same time, Haley has yet to say she’s definitely sticking around after Super Tuesday.
However, she’s already doubled down in her attacks on Trump, labeling him as unfit to be president; if Trump doesn’t make it all the way to November 5, either because of legal issues or poor health, the path to the presidency will be opened for Haley.
Again, that’s if Haley doesn’t run out of cash.
The Koch-funded Americans For Prosperity Action group (AFP) announced Sunday that they’re done spending money on this campaign, and will pivot towards the Senate and House races.
AFP still says that having Trump on the ballot will damage their chances of winning the November election, so they’re not abandoning Haley’s cause completely – just the campaign itself.
It does seem like other donors are willing to step in; campaign spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said on Sunday afternoon that they’d received over $1 million in online donations that day alone. We’ll see if they get a similar bounce after the dust has cleared on Super Tuesday.
